• MTS Economic News 20201126

    26 Nov 2020 | Economic News

· Dollar losses put on hold but long-term outlook tilts to downside

The dollar was on the defensive on Thursday as downbeat U.S. economic data and optimism about coronavirus vaccines prompted investors to seek out riskier assets tied to global commodities and emerging markets.

The British pound traded near a more than two-month high against the dollar as investors awaited details on trade talks between Britain and the European Union this week.

The dollar’s fall has been so rapid that it could rebound in the short term, market watchers said, but some investors still expect a decline over the longer term as they shift positions in expectation that the coronavirus outbreak will wane next year.

“A China-led recovery in the global economy and commodities should benefit commodities currencies,” said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief currency strategist at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo.

“The outlook is good, but we are reaching levels where authorities might feel some concern. Other emerging market currencies with good fundamentals should benefit.”

Against the euro, the dollar stood at $1.1926, close to its weakest in more than two months.

Sterling bought $1.3392, which is near its strongest level since Sept. 2. The pound held steady at 89.02 pence per euro.

The dollar was little changed at 104.32 yen.

Investors have rushed to riskier currencies and emerging-market assets in recent weeks after positive data on Covid-19 vaccine efficacy and signs of stability in U.S. politics, which has weighed broadly on the dollar.


Sentiment for the greenback took a hit after data on Wednesday showed weekly U.S. jobless claims rose more than expected and personal incomes fell.

Some economists said more job losses are likely as many U.S. states reinforce restrictions on businesses to curb a spread of coronavirus infections.


The dollar index against a basket of six other currencies was near the lowest in more than two months.


In Asia, trading in the dollar was subdued because U.S. financial markets are closed later on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday.


The onshore yuan rose to 6.5688 per dollar, resuming its advance toward a 29-month high set last week.


· With Yellen in line to lead Treasury, here are other economic posts Biden transition team could name next week


With Janet Yellen in line for Treasury secretary, President-elect Joe Biden must now round out a hands-on economic team charged with the delicate but nonetheless enormous task of nursing the U.S. economy back to health.

In the coming weeks, the president-elect will nominate a mix of economists and business leaders to helm the Commerce Department, the Securities and Exchange Commission and the National Economic Council.

He will name a successor to U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Council of Economic Advisers Chair Kevin Hassett and Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Kathy Kraninger.

A Biden transition team official said Wednesday that the president-elect will name nominees for key economic positions on Dec. 2.


· Hong Kong’s economy has ‘bottomed out’ and is set to recover, says economist

There may be some good news for Hong Kong’s economy after two years of anemic growth, according to one economist.

“I think, frankly speaking, there’s a lot of headwinds ahead for Hong Kong,” said Hao Zhou, a senior emerging markets economist at Commerzbank.

“But, from a GDP perspective … probably the Hong Kong economy has bottomed out this year. After two years’ sluggish growth, probably we’re going to see positive growth for next year and also 2022,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Thursday.


· ‘We should be substantially back to normal’ by summer 2021, says Operation Warp Speed’s chief science advisor

Operation Warp Speed’s Chief Science Advisor Moncef Slaoui told CNBC that Americans can expect to get back to ‘normal’ by summer 2021, as families across the United States spend Thanksgiving apart this year in order to keep their loved ones safe.

“We hope that we would have vaccinated 70% to 80% of the U.S. population by May or June of 2021, so I would hope that by summer, we should be substantially back to normal,” Slaoui said in a Wednesday evening interview on “The News with Shepard Smith”.

The coronavirus pandemic is ripping through cities and towns across the United States and the data shows that it has no signs of slowing down. There were 88,000 people hospitalized with Covid-19 on Tuesday, according to the Covid Tracking Project. Deaths are on the rise as well. The U.S. reported more than 2,100 deaths Tuesday, the most deaths since May, according to a CNBC analysis of Johns Hopkins data.

Doctors and scientists, however, are reassuring Americans that there will be a reprieve. Two weeks after Thanksgiving, the FDA will meet to discuss whether to green-light Pfizer’s vaccine. If it does, the government plans to ship out 6.4 million doses to communities around the country.


· The CDC is expected to shorten Covid quarantine time, something most everyone seems to agree on

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is considering shortening its recommended two-week quarantine period for people who have come in contact with people who have it — a change welcomed by some medical experts who say the relaxed guidelines would be easier for people to follow.


· China is an opportunity for India — not a threat, Beijing says as more apps are banned

China has accused India of discriminatory practices that violate World Trade Organization rules after New Delhi banned another 43 Chinese mobile apps.

New Delhi issued an order on Tuesday to block those apps, claiming they engaged in activities that threatened India’s national security.

“This action was taken based on the inputs regarding these apps for engaging in activities which are prejudicial to sovereignty and integrity of India, defence of India, security of state and public order,” India’s information technology ministry said.


· South Korea reports biggest Covid spike since March

South Korea reported 583 new coronavirus cases on Thursday, the highest since March, as it grapples with a third wave of infections that appears to be worsening despite tough new social distancing measures.

The government reimposed strict social distancing rules on Seoul and surrounding regions this week, only a month after they had been eased following the second wave of infections.

Now some experts say the government moved too early to relax those rules, as the daily official case tally exceeds 500 for the first time since March 6.


· India records 44,489 new coronavirus cases

India recorded 44,489 new coronavirus infections, data from the health ministry showed on Thursday, the 19th straight day that single-day cases have stayed below the 50,000 mark.

India’s coronavirus tally now stands at 9.27 million, the second-highest in the world, after the United States.

Deaths rose by 524, taking the total to 135,223.


· Malaysia's 1.7 million foreign workers to undergo mandatory Covid-19 screening

Malaysia has imposed mandatory Covid-19 screening for 1.7 million foreign workers in view of the high number of cases involving the group.


And effective Thursday (Nov 26), the authorities will also start imposing a fine of RM50,000 (S$16,442) per worker if employers house their foreign staff in crowded spaces.


Senior Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob, who announced this, said the first phase of Covid-19 screening involving 888,342 foreign workers would be carried out in Selangor, Labuan, Kuala Lumpur, Penang and Negeri Sembilan.


· World’s largest medical glove maker becomes the epicenter of Malaysia’s Covid resurgence

Top Glove, the world’s largest medical glove maker, has shut 20 manufacturing sites in Malaysia after thousands of workers tested positive for Covid-19.

A total of 2,684 Top Glove employees — most of them foreign workers — have tested positive as of Wednesday, local media reported, citing Malaysia’s Senior Minister for Security and Minister of Defence Ismail Sabri Yaakob.

That’s by far the largest cluster of new infections in the Southeast Asian country, where a resurgence in cases forced the government to reimpose a fresh round of partial lockdown measures, according to data by Malaysia’s health ministry.

· Japan bird flu outbreak spreads to farm in third prefecture

Bird flu has been detected in a third Japanese prefecture, the agriculture ministry said, as a wave of infections at poultry farms sparks the country’s worst outbreak in more than four years.

Avian influenza was discovered at an egg farm in Awaji city in Hyogo prefecture west of Tokyo, which is near Kagawa prefecture where the first infections were discovered in poultry earlier this month, the ministry said on its website.

The 146,000 chickens at the Hyogo farm will be slaughtered and buried, while movement in a 3 km (1.8 mile) radius around the farm will be restricted.

The new action means more than 1.8 million chickens will have have been culled since the latest outbreak began.


· Oil rally boosted by surprise fall in U.S. stocks


Oil rose for a fifth day on Thursday after a surprise fall in U.S. crude inventories gave further legs to a rally driven by optimism that vaccines will end the coronavirus pandemic and revive demand for fuels.


Brent futures were up 45 cents, or 0.9%, at $49.06 a barrel by 0245 GMT, after rising around 1.6% in the previous session. West Texas Intermediate crude was up by 34 cents, or 0.7%, at $46.05 a barrel, having gained 1.8% on Wednesday.


Both benchmarks have risen about 9% this week, getting a boost after AstraZeneca said on Monday its COVID-19 vaccine could be up to 90% effective, adding to the potential armoury to end the worst pandemic in a century.


Reference: CNBC, Reuters

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