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U.S. Markets Closed; gold price under pressure

Although the U.S. Markets are closed today for Presidents’ Day, markets still trade electronically until 1:00 EST. The trends have not changed, with equities making new highs once again; crude oil is exploding higher and bonds are getting crushed.

Gold continues to be under pressure and further separating from silver. Platinum remains in its own trading world, now trading over $1,300, a 7-year high. The trends are clear: gold in a downtrend and in danger of collapsing while silver and platinum remain in uptrends.

For now, the critical level to watch is $1,800 April gold; a close below there would bring $1,750 and $1,700 into play. If silver can get above $30, it could be off to the races and $1,400 April platinum is huge. We will stay with the trend and look for the gold/silver ratio to continue to fall; as of today, it is 65.

There is a much bigger story underneath the surface of the bond and gold markets. While the geniuses from the FED continue to tell us there is no inflation, bonds disagree. There is no question inflation is well above the FED’s antiquated way of tracking. The bonds are calling for inflation while gold is not.

· Morgan Stanley sees gold prices below $1,800 by end of 2021

Bearish sentiment is creeping back into the gold market as the price is caught in what appears to be a new $50 range.

Morgan Stanley is staking its bearish flag in the sand as it sees prices falling below $1,800 an ounce by the end of the year. The outlook comes as gold prices trade between resistance around $1,850 an ounce and support at $1,800 an ounce.

Andrew Sheets, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist for Morgan Stanley, said in a recent report that although inflation is expected to rise in 2021, it won't be enough to support gold prices.

· Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD bears still in control, $1,810 critical

Gold has been on the back foot at the beginning of a new week. The precious metal has been struggling to gain ground despite expectations for robust US stimulus – which is now high on the agenda after former President Donald Trump's trial has ended. Will additionl funds push XAU/USD higher?

Examining the four-hour chart is pointing to further losses rather than gains. Momentum is leaning to the downside and gold is is trading below the 50, 100 and 200 Simple Moving Averages.

Critical support awaits at last week's low of $1,810. The next downside target is February's trough's of $1,785. Resistance awaits at $1,820, the daily high, followed by $1,855.

· CORONAVIRUS UPDATES:

Global Cases: 109.66 (+257,515)

Global Deaths: 2.41M (+6,376)

No. 1

U.S. Cases: 28.31M (+51,387)

U.S. Deaths: 498,197(+948)

No. 114

Thailand Cases: 24,714 (+143)

Thailand Deaths: 82 (+2)

· WHO approves AstraZeneca/Oxford COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use

· Mexico begins rocky rollout of COVID-19 vaccinations for elderly

· South Korea reached deals to buy additional COVID-19 vaccines for 23 million people: Yonhap

· Several virus variants may reduce vaccine effectiveness: UK chief medical officer

· UK PM Johnson wants 'cautious but irreversible' path out of COVID-19 lockdown

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Monday he would plot a cautious but irreversible path out of the COVID-19 lockdown this week after the vaccination of 15 million vulnerable people.

· Incoming WTO head warns 'vaccine nationalism' could slow pandemic recovery

The World Trade Organization’s incoming chief on Monday warned against “vaccine nationalism’ that would slow progress in ending the COVID-19 pandemic and could erode economic growth for all countries - rich and poor.

Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala told Reuters her top priority was to ensure the WTO does more to address the pandemic, saying members should accelerate efforts to lift export restrictions slowing trade in needed medicines and supplies.

The former Nigerian finance minister and senior World Bank executive was appointed on Monday in a consensus process and starts her new job on March 1.

· EU to launch study programme for COVID-19 variants: von der Leyen

The European Union will this week kick off a new programme to study mutations in the COVID-19 virus, in a bid to prepare for the next generation of vaccines that might be needed, the European Commission’s president told Les Echos.

The programme, dubbed “HERA incubator,” will bring together health authorities and laboratories and have its own funding, Ursula von der Leyen said in an interview with the French financial newspaper. It will be launched on Wednesday.

· AstraZeneca, Czechs discuss extra vaccine, but sticking to EU deal

Vaccine supplies have been an explosive topic in Europe after producers cut back shipments.

· Support for euro zone economy should stay as long as needed: Eurogroup head

· Euro zone mulls stimulus calibration when economy restarts after COVID

Euro zone finance ministers are holding initial talks on Monday on when and how the expected pick up in economic activity, and the lifting of pandemic lockdowns, should affect the amounts of cash governments now pump into the economy to keep it going.

The preliminary talks are based on the European Commission’s forecasts showing the 19 countries sharing the euro will rebound less than earlier expected this year as a second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic put economies in new lockdowns.

The key challenge will be to avoid withdrawing support to companies that are viable but the loss of businesses caused by the pandemic has made them dependent on public support, while letting fail non-viable firms, that would have collapsed anyway.

· European Council President welcomes support of UK PM to work on pandemic treaty

European Council President Charles Michel said late on Monday that he welcomed the support of UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson to work together on a pandemic treaty.

“I welcome the support of Boris Johnson to work together on a pandemic treaty in order to improve global preparedness, resilience and recovery”, Michel said in a tweet.

Johnson said earlier he would be keen to agree a global treaty on pandemics where countries agreed to share data, amid British and U.S. concern over access given to a World Health Organization (WHO) mission to China.

· Guinea tracks potential Ebola contacts, says it can overcome new outbreak

Guinea is tracking down people who potentially had contact with Ebola patients and will rush vaccines to the affected area as soon as possible following at least three deaths from the disease, Health Minister Remy Lamah said on Monday.

· WHO sounds regional warning over Ebola outbreaks in Congo, Guinea

An outbreak of Ebola in Democratic Republic of Congo and Guinea poses a regional risk that requires exceptional vigilance, a senior World Health Organisation official said on Monday.

Congo has confirmed four cases of Ebola since a resurgence of the virus was announced on Feb. 7 in Butembo, the epicentre of a previous outbreak that was declared over last June.

· U.S. enters NATO meetings as China and Russia threats loom and war in Afghanistan drags on

Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin will meet with members of the world’s most powerful military alliance on Wednesday for the first time since joining the Biden administration.

NATO meets Wednesday and Thursday to discuss an array of challenges facing the 30-member group. The virtual meetings will be a glimpse into President Joe Biden’s foreign policy agenda and comes on the heels of his calls to stand “shoulder to shoulder” with America’s closest allies.

· Texas oil refineries shut as winter storm hits U.S. energy sector

· Saudi Arabia won't work with foreign firms without regional HQ from 2024

· Iran says it has told IAEA of plan to end snap inspections

Iran has informed the U.N. nuclear watchdog about its plan to end sweeping inspection powers given to the agency under the 2015 nuclear deal, its envoy to the International Atomic Energy Agency wrote on Twitter on Monday.

· Iraq rocket attack kills contractor, wounds U.S. service member - U.S. coalition

A rocket attack at a U.S.-led military base in Kurdish northern Iraq on Monday killed a civilian contractor and wounded five other people including a U.S. service member, according to initial reports, the U.S. coalition in Iraq said.

It was the most deadly attack to hit U.S.-led forces for almost a year in Iraq, where tensions have escalated between U.S. forces, their Iraqi and Kurdish allies on one side and Iran-aligned militias on the other.

· Japan’s Nikkei 225 crosses 30,000 for first time in more than three decades; Asia-Pacific stocks rise

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 surged past the 30,000 level for the first time in more than 30 years, according to data from Refinitiv. It rose 1.91% on Monday to 30,084.15 while the Topix index gained 1.04% to close at 1,953.94.

Government data released Monday showed Japan’s economy growing 12.7% on an annualized basis between October and December last year. The preliminary reading for fourth-quarter gross domestic product was higher than economists’ median estimate of a 9.5% gain, according to Reuters.

· Asia-Pacific stocks rise; mainland China markets remain closed for Lunar New Year holiday

Reference: CNBC, Kitco, Reuters, FXStreet, Worldometers