• MTS Economic News 20210304

    4 Mar 2021 | Economic News
  

· U.S. Jobless claims preview: Another 750,000 Americans likely filed new unemployment claims

Weekly unemployment claims likely ticked up last week, picking up slightly after reaching the lowest level since November during the prior week.

The Department of Labor is set to release its weekly report on new jobless claims on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here are the main metrics expected from the report, compared to consensus data compiled by Bloomberg:


Initial jobless claims, week ended February 27: 750,000 expected vs. 730,000 during the prior week

Continuing claims, week ended February 20: 4.300 million expected vs. 4.419 million during the prior week


· All eyes are on Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve.

The world's most powerful central banker speaks at 17:05 GMT in his last public appearance before the Fed's rate decision in two weeks. So far, Powell shrugged off higher yields and rising inflation expectations, seeing it as a sign of better growth prospects.


· Powell: We Need More Stimulus & Inflation Is Not A Worry

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell believes the US unemployment rate, officially at 6.3% in January, is clearly understated. That rate is likely closer to 10%, if they include those who left the labor force because of the pandemic.

That isn't the only data in need of adjusting. Just look at the Labor Department’s business birth/death estimates. Those are aspirational. You can’t know the real number for at least a year, so they make the best estimate they can.

However, the “past performance” data the estimates are based on is clearly broken now that 150,000 (if not more) businesses closed in less than a year. Using that estimate forces the unemployment rate artificially lower. Their models no longer apply to the world we live in.


· Investors look to Fed for next steps as Twist speculation ramps up

After a searing U.S. bond selloff, markets are laser-focused on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s next move.

But while investors will be closely watching the Fed chief, due to speak Thursday at a Wall Street Journal conference, for any hints of concern about last week’s jump in bond yields, they see a high bar for the U.S. central bank to actually take action. Thursday’s event will be Powell’s last outing before the Fed’s policy-making committee convenes March 16-17.


· President Joe Biden agreed to lower cutoff limits for stimulus checks in his proposed $1.9 trillion stimulus bill.

Political analysts suggest that this compromise with moderate Democrats will reportedly pave the way for passing the legislation in the Senate, which may happen on Thursday.


· U.S. House cancels Thursday session after police warn of possible plot on Capitol


· Efficacy data for India's own COVID-19 vaccine could boost public acceptance


· UK regulator says will fast-track vaccines for coronavirus variants

Britain’s medical regulator on Thursday said it would fast-track vaccines for coronavirus variants, adding that the makers of already-authorised shots would not need new lengthy clinical trials to prove their adapted vaccines will work.


· UK new car sales slump in February amid COVID-19 hit

British new car registrations fell by roughly 36% year-on-year in February, according to preliminary data from an industry body, as lockdown measures forced showrooms to close their doors to the public.

Volumes were at their lowest level for a February since 1959, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).


· Analysis: Biden faces calls to jumpstart North Korea talks with more pragmatic goals

With U.S. policy toward North Korea in limbo as the new administration in Washington conducts a months-long policy review, former officials and experts are sparring over whether to shift focus from seeking the North’s full denuclearisation.


· China has banned Taiwan’s pineapples. Taiwan says it’s not fair play


· Oil extends gains on prospect of OPEC+ sticking with supply cuts

Oil prices rose for a second straight session on Thursday, as the possibility that OPEC+ producers might decide against increasing output at a key meeting later in the day lent support, alongside a drop in U.S. fuel inventories.


Brent crude futures added 52 cents, or 0.8%, to $64.59 a barrel, as of 0709 GMT, after climbing more than 2% on Wednesday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 43 cents, or 0.7% to $61.71 a barrel.


The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies, together called OPEC+, are considering rolling over production cuts into April instead of raising output, as a recovery in oil demand remains fragile due to the coronavirus crisis, three OPEC+ sources told Reuters.

Citi analysts said the sustained recovery in crude oil prices is beginning to expose differences across OPEC+ countries, but it expects the group to find a compromise for a nominal production increase of 500,000 bpd.

The bank also expects Saudi Arabia to hold on its voluntary extra cut of 994,000 bpd, keeping its production quota at 8.256 million bpd.


· Myanmar police break up protests again after bloodiest day since coup

Myanmar police broke up demonstrations in several places with tear gas and gunfire on Thursday but there was no immediate word on casualties a day after the United Nations said 38 people had been killed in the bloodiest day since last month’s coup.


· French President Macron renews calls for end to repression in Myanmar


· Saudi-led coalition says destroys Houthi missile fired towards Jazan: state media


Reference: CNBC, Trading View, Yahoo Finance, Reuters, Forbes


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