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·         Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD’s weekly close above $1729 keeps buyers hopeful –Confluence Detector

The recovery in Gold (XAU/USD) from multi-month lows gathered steam on Thursday after the US dollar tumbled in tandem with the Treasury yields. Gold rallied over 1% to settle the holiday-shortened week above the critical resistance at $1729.

Investors cheered strong US manufacturing data and President Biden’s infrastructure plan, which boosted global stocks at the expense of the safe-haven gold. Technically, gold’s recovery seems to have some legs but its fate hinges on the US NFP release and next week’s FOMC minutes.

 

Gold Price Chart: Key resistance and support levels

The Technical Confluences Detector shows that gold faces immediate resistance at $1732, which is the Fibonacci 38.2% one-week.

A dense cluster of resistance is seen around the $1737 area, which is the confluence of SMA200 four-hour and Fibonacci 61.8% one-week.

The bulls will then look to challenge powerful resistance at $1747, the convergence of the previous week high, pivot point one-day R2 and pivot point one-week R1.

Alternatively, a sustained break below the $1729 support – the intersection of the Fibonacci 23.6% one-week and Fibonacci 61.8% one-month - could revive the downside bias.

The next relevant support is seen around $1725, the confluence of the SMA10 one-day and Fibonacci 23.6% one-day.

Further south, $1720 could likely test the bearish commitments. At that point, the Fibonacci 38.2% one-day coincides with the previous week low.

·         Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – Facing Wall of Resistance from $1746.90 to $1788.50

The direction of the June Comex gold futures contract is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the long-term Fibonacci level at $1711.90.

Short-Term Outlook

The direction of the June Comex gold futures contract is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the long-term Fibonacci level at $1711.90.

 

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $1711.90 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a quick move into $1746.90, followed by $1756.00. Taking out the latter could lead to an extension of the rally into $1767.60 and $1788.50.

 

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $1711.90 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a quick break into a new minor 50% level at $1704.60, followed by a pair of bottoms at $1677.30 and $1676.20. The latter is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside.

 

·         Dollar heads for third weekly gain as payrolls data looms

The dollar steadied on Friday ahead of data from the United States that is expected to show an increase in job creation and a lower unemployment rate for March, as the the world’s largest economy maintains a steady recovery from the pandemic.

 

Sentiment for the dollar has improved in recent weeks, while Treasury yields have spiked, as the Biden administration’s planned stimulus of over $2 trillion and a rapid COVID-19 vaccine roll out spurred economic optimism as well as inflation fears.

While trading is likely to be muted on Friday with many financial markets shut for Easter holidays, analysts say the dollar’s ascent to multi-month highs is likely to continue as more investors bet on economic recovery.

The dollar last traded at 110.62 yen, not far from its strongest level in a year.

Against the euro, the dollar was quoted at $1.1777, near a five-month high.

The greenback was steady at 0.9417 Swiss franc, after losing 0.2% on Thursday.

The British pound was little changed at $1.3843.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls due later on Friday are forecast to have jumped by 647,000 in March from a 379,000 in February. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 6.0% from 6.2%.

The dollar index, a gauge of its value against six major currencies, stood at 92.862, on course for its third consecutive week of gains.

Major currencies are not expected to move much on Friday with financial markets closed in Australia, Singapore, Hong Kong, Britain, Europe and the United States, analysts said.

Elsewhere, the Australian dollar edged up to $0.7629, after falling to a three-month low in the previous session.

Across the Tasman Sea, the New Zealand dollar was quoted at $0.7034.

In the cryptocurrency market, bitcoin briefly rose above $60,000 for the first time in two weeks but then pared gains to trade up 1.49% at $59,601.

Rival digital currency ether rose 1.39% to $1,994.

 

·         Robust U.S. employment growth expected in March, jobs deficit remains large

U.S. employers likely stepped up hiring in March amid increased vaccinations and more pandemic relief money from the government, which would cement expectations for a boom that could push this year’s economic growth to the strongest since 1984.

·         Suez Canal must upgrade quickly to avoid future disruption - shipping sources

·         As WHO highlights COVID animal origins, China wildlife crackdown needs more teeth: experts

 

·         Opposition grows against UK vaccine passports

More than 70 British lawmakers have signalled their opposition to the introduction of so-called vaccine passports that the government is considering bringing in to help to open the economy as it starts lifting COVID-19 lockdown restrictions.

 

·         Europe’s stumbling vaccine rollout provides a lesson in EU politics

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said it herself: “The start was tough.”

The European Union has had a bumpy Covid-19 vaccine rollout. The campaign has prompted complaints that regulators were too slow to approve the shots and led to a simmering tussle with AstraZeneca as the pharmaceutical giant repeatedly slashed its delivery commitments.

·         New COVID-19 restrictions to impact French growth: minister

New COVID-19 restrictions in France will impact economic growth this year but it is too early to say by how much, Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said on Friday.

·         Bitcoin price surge may be driving up interest in China’s digital yuan, central bank says

·         China’s fastest growing city wants to be the next Silicon Valley — local systems may get in the way

As growing pressure from the U.S. pushes Beijing to build up its own technology, local systems are getting in the way.

Over the past forty years, experimentation with business-friendly policies in the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen helped turn it into the equivalent of Silicon Valley with homegrown tech giants such as Tencent and Huawei. But so far, other cities have yet to repeat Shenzhen’s success.

 

·         RPT-China unlikely to wield U.S. bond weapon as tensions stay high

China is unlikely to pare its purchases of U.S. Treasuries significantly anytime soon as its foreign exchange reserves grow, even as trade and geopolitical tensions between Washington and Beijing remain high, analysts and investors said.

·         U.S. to brief Japan, South Korea on North Korea review

The United States will brief South Korea and Japan on Friday on President Joe Biden’s long-awaited review of North Korea policy in talks on Friday that will also cover concerns about a shortage of semi-conductor chips, a senior administration official said on Thursday.

·         Japan gathering information on Nomura, MUFG losses linked to U.S. client

 

·         Japan getting more Pfizer COVID-19 vaccines to immunise elderly faster*

·         Australia probes if blood clot case linked to AstraZeneca vaccine

 

·         Australia calls on Myanmar military to release Australian economic adviser

Australia called on Friday for Myanmar’s ruling military to immediately release an Australian economic adviser to the deposed leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who has been detained for two months.

·         Myanmar protesters urge 'guerrilla strikes' as internet blackout widens

People in Myanmar opposed to the military junta marched, observed strikes and scrambled to overcome a shutdown of the internet on Friday, undaunted by the generals’ bloody suppression of protests during the past two months.

·         Japan stocks jump more than 1.5% as other major markets close for Good Friday

Shares in Japan jumped on Friday after the S&P 500 surged to a record close overnight on Wall Street. 

The Nikkei 225 surged 1.58% to close at 29,854 as shares of Japanese conglomerate Softbank Group popped 4.22%. The Topix rose 0.71% to finish the trading day at 1,971.62. In South Korea, the Kospi closed 0.82% higher at 3,112.80.

Mainland Chinese stocks also on the day. The Shanghai composite was up 0.52% to 3,484.39 while the Shenzhen component gained 1.02% to 14,122.61.

Most other major Asia-Pacific markets like Australia, Hong Kong, India and Singapore were closed for Good Friday. Elsewhere, markets in the U.S. and UK were also closed for Good Friday.

 

Reference: Reuters, CNBC, FX Empire, FXStreet