Calls grow louder to boycott Beijing’s Olympics — and analysts warn of retaliation from China
Countries and companies outside China face rising pressure to boycott the Winter Olympics in Beijing next year, but China will not sit back idly in response, says political risk consultancy Eurasia Group.
“China will punish countries that boycott the Games with political sanctions and commercial retaliation, but with much greater severity in the athletic boycott scenario,” they said in a report published Thursday.
“If a company does not boycott the Games, it risks reputational damage with Western consumers. But if it does, it risks being shut out of the Chinese market,” the analysts said.
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Three kinds of boycott
Eurasia outlined three possible scenarios: a diplomatic boycott, an athletic boycott, or a so-called “outlier scenario.”
1. Diplomatic boycott
The most likely scenario — with a 60% probability — is for the U.S. to join at least one other major Western country in a so-called diplomatic boycott of the Games.
2. Athletic boycott
In this scenario, which has a 30% probability, one or more Western countries could stop their athletes from participating in the Games, perhaps by applying domestic political pressure. An economic boycott is defined as the banning of U.S. spectators, broadcasters, and sponsors.
3. ‘Boycott lite’
This is an outlier scenario where tensions between the West and China ease, and there will be “mild political statements about the Games” but no formal boycott, the analysts said, labeling it as “boycott lite.”
It’s the least likely scenario and only has a 10% chance of happening, they said, adding: “There is currently not much cause for optimism about the trajectory of Sino-Western relations.”
Reference: CNBC
Read More: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/
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