Fundamentals
· Spot gold was up 0.2% at $1,787.11 per ounce by 0135 GMT, after hitting its highest since Feb. 25 at $1,797.67 on Thursday. The metal has gained about 0.6% so far this week.
· U.S. gold futures rose 0.4% to $1,788.10 per ounce.
· The dollar index fell 0.1% against its rivals, making gold cheaper for other currency holders.
· U.S. 10-year Treasury yield ticked lower on news that Biden will propose a tax hike for high earners, to fund about $1 trillion in childcare, universal pre-kindergarten education and paid leave for workers.
· The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell to a 13-month low last week.
· Switzerland in March recorded its biggest monthly gold exports in 10 months as shipments to India leaped to their highest since 2013, Swiss customs data showed.
· Uzbekistan’s central bank will resume gold sales when it feels the price of the metal is peaking, deputy governor Behzod Khamraev told Reuters.
· Global silver demand will rise this year to its highest since 2015, the Silver Institute said in a report on Thursday.
· Spot gold may drop to $1,763
On the daily chart, a retracement analysis on the fall from $1,775.26 reveals a key resistance at $1,799, around which the rise lost its momentum.
Spot gold may drop to $1,763 per ounce, as it may have completed a rise from $1,722.94.
The rise had been driven by a wave c, which could be well broken down into five smaller waves. This structure, along with a drop around the 100% projection level of $1,803, signals a completion of the wave c.
Only a surge above the Thursday high of $1,797.67 could confirm the extension of the wave c towards $1,833-$1,852 range.
The metal may consolidate in a narrow range of $1,776-$1,799 or retreat towards $1,752, if the support at $1,776 is unable to hold.
Each reader should consult his or her own professional or other advisers for business, financial or legal advice regarding the products mentioned in the analyses.
· Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD bulls continue to target $1800
Heading into the final trading day of this week, gold has turned positive once again, looking to retake the $1800 mark, as the upside bias remains intact amid bullish technical setup, FXStreet’s Dhwani Mehta briefs.
News on Biden’s tax proposal, US PMIs and covid updates in focus
“The greenback has resumed its bearish momentum amid improving market mood, as investors appear to move past Biden’s tax hike reports. The US Treasury yields are stabilizing after the previous drop, although its impact on the yieldless gold is likely to be limited, as the technical setup remains in favor of the bulls.”
“Markets look forward to the Eurozone and US PMI reports from fresh hints on the post-pandemic global economic recovery. Meanwhile, the covid vaccines and infections updated will be closely eyed as well.”
“A daily closing above the $1800 threshold is needed to revive the double bottom bullish reversal. The 100-DMA at $1804 would be the next bullish target, above which the doors are likely to open up towards the February 24 high of $1814.”
“A drop below Thursday’s low of $1777 is likely to put this week’s low at $1764 at risk. Further down, the confluence of the 21 and 50-DMAs at $1747 is the level to beat for the XAU bears.”
· Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD sellers attack $1,781 support-confluence
Gold drops 0.03% despite the latest corrective pullback to $1,784 ahead of Friday’s European session. In doing so, the yellow metal respects the previous day’s U-turn from the highest levels since late February.
Given the Momentum indicator flashing sluggish signs, the commodity prices can stay pressured. However, a convergence of 100-HMA and an ascending support line from April 13 near $1,781 challenges the metal sellers.
Meanwhile, the corrective pullback will aim for the $1,790 hurdle comprising multiple levels marked since Monday, a break of which should direct gold buyers toward the key $1,798 resistance comprising recent highs.
It’s worth mentioning that the bullion’s upside past $1,798 needs validation from the $1,700 psychological magnet before eyeing the top late February downswing, near $1,816.
· Gold and silver move marginally lower heading into the European open
Gold and silver are trading marginally lower on the last trading day of the week. The yellow metal sold off before it could make a meaningful test of the $1800/oz area. Silver is still holding on to the psychological $26/oz area.
Risk sentiment was mixed overnight. The Nikkei 225 closed just over half a percent lower while the ASX (0.08%) and Shanghai Composite (0.15%) both moved slightly higher. US sentiment took a hit late in the session after Biden hinted at a capital gains tax rise to as much as 43.4%.
In the FX markets, the dollar index (0.10%) has moved lower once again and trades at 91.18. The biggest mover overnight was AUD/USD which trades around 0.27% higher along with NZD/USD which is a closed second at 0.26%. Copper has had another good session pushing up 0.83% and oil is just under half a percent in the black.
In terms of news, BOJ Gov Kuroda says too early discuss timing, means of exit from ultra-easy policy. This is nothing new really.
On the geopolitical front, China's Global Times tweets UK is lying, violating international law, interfering with China.
Japan finance minister Aso says discussing support policies for the upcoming State of Emergency due to another rise in coronavirus infections.
Use of Johnson & Johnson vaccine in the US expected to be approved again as soon as this weekend
Bitcoin dipped below 50K overnight and some crypto analysts are attributing the move to the fact that rumours of US tax on cryptocurrencies persistently arise.
Looking ahead to the rest of the session highlights include PMI's from the major nations, Russian interest rate decision, U.S. new home sales. We could also get comments from ECB's President Lagarde and German Buba's Wuermeling.
· Silver eased 0.3% to $26.10 per ounce. Platinum was little changed at $1,203.10.
· Palladium rose 0.1% to $2,840 per ounce but was off a record $2,891.50 hit on Thursday. Many analysts expect a further run towards $3,000 per ounce as automakers ramp up purchases of the metal, worsening a supply shortage.
Reference: Brecorder, FXStree, CNBC, Kitco
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