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The precious metal GOLD is trading with a strong bearish bias at 1,777 level. On the 4-hour timeframe, the pair has violated an upward channel that was supporting the precious metal at 1,780 level. For now, it may encounter resistance at the same support become resistance level. On the lower side, gold can gain immediate support at 1,767, and violation of this level can extend further selling trends until 1,749. Since the MACD and RSI were also supporting a bearish trend, we decided to open a sell signal around 1,776. The idea is to target the 1778.89 level with a stop loss of around 1788.89.

· Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD to resume its decline towards $1600 before long

A stronger US dollar and rising US Treasury yields, in both real and nominal terms, will weigh on the prices of gold, according to strategists at Capital Economics whose XAU/USD year-end forecast is $1600.

The outlook for physical gold demand is brighter

“Long-dated US real yields have ticked back down, pushing up the price of gold. But we don’t think that this will persist. In fact, we expect US real yields to rise further before long, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. This underpins our view that investment demand for gold will fall, putting downward pressure on its price. Indeed, ETF holdings of gold have fallen since the start of the year as real yields have risen.”

“Our forecasts of a stronger US dollar and heightened investor risk appetite will also weigh on the gold price. Admittedly, risk appetite already appears quite high – especially in the US. But there is probably still some scope for it to rise as downside risks to economic growth related to the virus continue to fade.”

“The outlook for physical gold demand is brighter. Local prices in India and China have shifted back to a premium over global prices this year, indicating stronger domestic demand. This has been reflected in a surge in gold imports into India, and a pick-up in China’s gold imports in March. Furthermore, reports of an increase in gold import quotas for banks in China suggest that imports could surge in April and May. Ultimately though, while this will support the gold price at the margin, we don’t expect it to offset lower investment demand, and forecast that the gold price will fall to around $1,600 per ounce by end-2021.”

· Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD eyeing a firm break above $1800, US GDP in focus

Gold (XAU/USD) extended its recovery from eight-day lows of $1763 and rallied as high as $1782 after the US dollar’s sell-off accelerated alongside the decline in the Treasury yields after the Federal Reserve (Fed) kept the monetary policy settings unchanged on Wednesday. It was the dismissal from Fed Chair Powell on tapering talks, which hammered the greenback across the board while the 10-year US rates fell from near 1.65% to 1.61%. While acknowledging improvement in the economic outlook, courtesy of the successful vaccination drives, Powell downplayed concerns over rising inflation, calling them transitory.

Gold is building on Fed-induced turnaround this Thursday, gaining additional benefit from US President Joe Biden’s push for $a 1.8 trillion spending package. Expectations of ongoing policy support from the government and the central bank offer a much-needed boost to the bulls. Heading into a flurry of critical US economic data, including the advance Q1 GDP, gold has entered a phase of upside consolidation, as the US dollar attempts a bounce across the board. However, gold is likely to resume its uptrend as the greenback continues to feel the pull of gravity amid dovish Fed expectations.