The Fed hinted it could reconsider easy policies if economy continues rapid improvement
Federal Reserve officials at their April meeting said a strong pickup in economic activity would warrant discussions about tightening monetary policy, according to minutes from the session released Wednesday.
“A number of participants suggested that if the economy continued to make rapid progress toward the Committee’s goals, it might be appropriate at some point in upcoming meetings to begin discussing a plan for adjusting the pace of asset purchases,” the meeting summary said.
Markets have been watching closely for clues about when the central bank might start tapering its bond purchases, which currently are at least $120 billion a month. The Fed balance sheet is just shy of $7.9 trillion, nearly double its level before the Covid-19 pandemic.
Fed officials have been steadfast that they won’t change policy until their economic goals, particularly regarding employment and inflation, have been hit. The discussion revealed in the minutes is the first time that central bankers have indicated that a reduction in purchases could happen ahead, though there was no timetable.
Chairman Jerome Powell said after the meeting that the recovery remains “uneven and far from complete” and the economy was still not showing the “substantial further progress” standard the committee has set before it will change policy.
Ahead of jobs miss, some Fed officials edged towards 'taper' debate
A "number" of Fed officials appeared ready to consider changes to monetary policy based on a continued strong economic recovery, according to minutes of the U.S. central bank's April meeting, but data since then may have already changed the landscape.
"A number of participants suggested that if the economy continued to make rapid progress toward the (policy-setting) Committee’s goals, it might be appropriate at some point in upcoming meetings to begin discussing a plan for adjusting the pace of asset purchases," the minutes said in the most overt reference yet to a possible taper of the Fed's crisis-fighting bond purchases.
But that view may have suffered a blow this month with the release of data showing job growth was anemic in April. Though inflation ticked higher, also a concern cited in the minutes, the addition of just 266,000 jobs last month provided little further progress towards the Fed's efforts to nurse the economy back to full employment.
A "couple" of officials were already concerned inflation could hit "unwelcome levels" before they had time to recognize it was happening and plan the proper policy response, the minutes showed.
"Many" participants, meanwhile, noted the trouble businesses reported in attracting workers despite the high levels of unemployment, a fact Fed officials say may be driven by a wave of retirements, ongoing fears of the virus, childcare problems, and the ongoing flow of unemployment benefits.
"Many participants noted ... that these factors were depressing the labor force participation rate, relative to its pre-pandemic level," the minutes stated.
With the job market still far short of the Fed's goals and the coronavirus still killing hundreds a day in the United States, "it is too soon to open the taper discussion," St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said earlier on Wednesday.
Bullard added that only after the health crisis is more fully controlled should the Fed consider curbing its support for the economy. "In the weeks ahead it might become clearer," he told reporters after a virtual appearance at an economics forum.
The Fed will hold its next meeting in June, when officials will not only issue a new policy statement but update their projections for growth, inflation, unemployment, and the appropriate path of the Fed's benchmark overnight interest rate, which is currently pinned near zero.