Investors have high expectations for the global oil recovery because of the economic pick up in the U.S. — but those expectations could be “too optimistic,” according to energy analyst Vandana Hari.
“The U.S. rebound and the U.S. leaving behind all Covid restrictions almost … dramatically, starting in April and May, has taken the markets by surprise,” said Hari, founder and chief executive officer of Vanda Insights.
“But that has also set expectations on a slightly different, more optimistic path,” she told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Friday.
Oil price predictions
While she’s “constructive” about where oil prices may be headed, Hari said she was less of a “raging bull” than those calling for $80 in 2021 or even $100 oil in 2022.
Brent prices could stay close to where they are now — in the $70 to $75 range — at least for the summer months, she said.
International benchmark Brent is up more than 45% since the beginning of the year, while the Nymex is 55% higher year-to-date.
Still, Hari acknowledged downside risks to oil prices.
“There’s a lot of uncertainty still in the air with regard to the virus, the variants and how … countries manage,” she said.
Most of the world still won’t be close to mass immunity in the second half of 2021, she added.
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