PRECIOUS-Gold hovers near one-week peak on weak consumer sentiment print
· Gold prices held near a one-week high on Monday, as a plunge in U.S. consumer sentiment allayed some concerns of an early tapering by the Federal Reserve.
· Spot gold fell 0.1% to $1,776.78 per ounce by 0342 GMT, having earlier hit its highest since Aug. 6 at $1,782.40. U.S. gold futures were flat at $1,778.50.
· “The disappointing consumer sentiment data suggest that the Fed may have more reasons to stay put about tapering asset purchase, and this is definitely good news for gold,” said Margaret Yang, a strategist at DailyFX.
· However, “towards the end of year we may see some lower price levels (in gold)... The overall monetary environment is moving towards tightening,” Yang added.
· U.S. consumer sentiment dropped sharply in early-August to its lowest level in a decade, as rising cases of Delta variant of the coronavirus threaten to dent the pace of economic recovery.
· While markets face a mixed bag of economic data, an increasing number of policymakers have been discussing a quicker timeline for tapering and possibly raising the Fed’s benchmark overnight interest rate.
· Friday’s data weighed on the dollar index dragging it to a one-week low, boosting gold’s appeal to those holding other currencies.
· “Expect tough resistance for gold at $1,800,” OCBC said in a note.
· “The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) minutes is likely to determine gold’s next near-term direction, where a hawkish report may send gold tumbling once more.”
· Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD to remain below $1,800 ahead of Powell, FOMC minutes
Market participants now look forward to the US monthly Retail Sales figures to gauge the strength of the economic recovery. Apart from this, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's scheduled speech on Tuesday and the latest FOMC monetary policy meeting on Wednesday will influence market expectations for the next policy move by the Fed. This, along with developments surrounding the coronavirus saga, will play a key role in determining the next leg of a directional move for gold. In the meantime, the broader market risk sentiment, the US bond yields and the USD price dynamics might provide some impetus amid absent relevant market-moving economic releases on Monday.
Short-term technical outlook
From a technical perspective, any subsequent positive move is likely to confront some resistance near the $1,790 horizontal zone. This is closely followed by the $1,800 round-figure mark and the $1,805-15 confluence region, comprising of 100-day and 200-day SMAs. A sustained move beyond will set the stage for additional gains towards the $1,832-34 heavy supply zone. Some follow-through buying will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and pave the way for a further near-term appreciating move.
· Watch $1,800 gold price level as markets focus on data misses - analysts
The inflation data have also been positive for gold, showing that price pressures might have peaked. This means that the Fed might no longer be in such a rush to taper to tame inflation, said Gainesville Coins precious metals expert Everett Millman.
Great time to buy
Also, gold's price below $1,800 an ounce is an excellent entry-point for buyers, making the precious metal quite attractive on a technical basis, Millman pointed out.
"This is a very attractive entry price point after gold pulled back quite a bit. It is encouraging that we recovered quickly. Just within hours, gold was back above $1,700," said Millman. "I wouldn't be shocked if we broke above $1,800 next week. I'm more bullish now."
Another positive sign for gold is the physical demand picking in Asia, the precious metals expert added. "There are some pretty bullish signs on the demand side. We see gold jewelry and gold coin sales trending in the right direction in India. That should spur some more bargain-hunting demand," he said.
· TD Securities, which was right in its call to short gold just a couple of weeks ago, is now looking at $1,784 as the next resistance level. "We had a short position in gold and took profits at $1,707. My general view of gold now is that we will see more strength because rates will remain accommodative," said Melek.
· Silver fell 0.2% to $23.70 per ounce. Platinum slipped 1% to $1,016.01 and palladium was down 0.5% at $2,635.71.
· China economy under pressure as factory output, retail sales growth slow sharply
China's factory output and retail sales growth slowed sharply and missed expectations in July, as new COVID-19 outbreaks and floods disrupted business operations, adding to signs the economic recovery is losing momentum.
Industrial production in the world's second largest economy increased 6.4% year-on-year in July, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Monday. Analysts had expected output to rise 7.8% after growing 8.3% in June.
Retail sales increased 8.5% in July from a year ago, far lower than the forecast 11.5% rise and June's 12.1% uptick.
· China cbank offers more medium-term loan than expected to cushion economic slowdown
· China's new home price growth slows as speculative curbs bite
China’s new home prices rose at the slowest clip in six months in July, as authorities further tightened rules in the red-hot property sector, including limits on some categories of purchases.
· Japan's economy rebounds in Q2, COVID clouds outlook
Japan's economy rebounded more than expected in the second quarter after slumping in the first three months of this year, data showed, a sign consumption and capital expenditure were recovering from the coronavirus pandemic's initial hit.
But many analysts expect growth to remain modest in the current quarter as state of emergency curbs reimposed to combat a spike in infections weigh on household spending.
The world's third-largest economy grew an annualised 1.3% in April-June after a revised 3.7% slump in the first quarter, preliminary gross domestic product (GDP) data showed on Monday, beating a median market forecast for a 0.7% gain.
· Thai Q2 GDP thumps forecasts, but COVID-19 hampers recovery
Thailand’s economy unexpectedly grew in the second quarter from the first helped by exports and government spending, but spiking COVID-19 cases continue to batter domestic activity and tourism, restraining its fragile recovery.
The government cut its 2021 economic growth forecast to 0.7-1.2% from 1.5-2.5%, the third time it has done so, as it battles to contain its biggest COVID-19 outbreak amid a slow vaccination rollout. The economy slumped 6.1% last year.
Thailand’s biggest COVID-19 outbreak so far has seen a spike in cases and deaths, prompting tougher containment measures in Bangkok and nearby provinces in July before being extended this month and expanded to areas which account for around 80% of GDP.
· U.S. administers 356.4 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines - CDC
· Sydney records deadliest day of COVID-19 pandemic, Melbourne lockdown extended
· Japan to extend Covid-19 ‘state of emergency’ lockdown through mid-September
The Japanese government is set to extend its “state of emergency” soft lockdown in regions including Tokyo to the middle of September as well as adding several other regions.
· Taliban seize presidential palace in Kabul as Western diplomats flee
· Taliban declares 'war is over' as president and diplomats flee Kabul
· Britain says Taliban control Afghanistan - we're not going back
The Taliban are in control of Afghanistan and British and NATO forces will not be returning to fight the insurgents, Britain's defence minister said on Monday.
· Malaysia’s Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin and cabinet resign, palace confirms
Reference: CNBC, Reuters, Kitco, FXStreet