· Gold Price Forecast: Room to rise towards $1825? XAU/USD awaits US inflation, Fed’s Powell
Gold price witnessed another choppy session on Thursday, although maintained its weekly range between $1810 and $1777, as the three-day Jackson Hole Symposium kickstarted.
Meanwhile, the reports of the Kabul explosion by ISIS further bolstered the haven demand for the greenback.
However, the dour mood on the global stocks amid Fed’s anxiety and geopolitical tensions over Afghanistan helped a swift recovery in gold price.
Gold Price Chart - Technical outlook
The upside breakout has re-opened doors towards $1825, which is the pattern target, However, the weekly highs at $1810 could challenge the bullish attempts on a sustained move above $1800.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is edging higher towards the overbought territory, well above the midline, allowing room for more gains.
On the flip side, 21-Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $1796 is likely to offer an immediate cushion to the bulls.
The confluence of the 200-SMA and wedge resistance-turned-support at $1794 will be the next relevant target for gold sellers.
Further south, the horizontal 50-SMA at $1791 will be back in play, with a follow-through downside bias likely to fuel a fresh sell-off towards the pattern support and 100-SMA convergence around $1777.
· Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD eyes $1808, $1819 bullish targets ahead of Powell – Confluence Detector
Well, the Fed speculation on monetary policy normalization has once again turned in favor of the hawks heading into Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole showdown. However, the Kabul airport bombing, escalating Delta covid variant concerns and pre-Powell anxiety are keeping the sentiment around safe-haven gold underpinned.
It remains to be seen if Powell joins his colleagues James Bullard and Robert Kaplan in calling for taper in the final quarter of this year. Gold price is likely to suffer on any hints on withdrawal of the monetary policy support.
Gold Price: Key levels to watch
The Technical Confluences Detector shows that gold is extending the previous bounce towards a minor resistance at $1805, above which the confluence of the Fibonacci 38.2% one-month and pivot point one-week R2 at $1808 could be tested.
Buying pressure is likely to intensify above the latter calling for a test of the SMA200 and SMA100 one-day intersection at $1810.
Gold bulls will then take off towards the next significant upside barrier at $1819, the convergence of the Fibonacci 23.6% one-month, pivot point one-day R3 and pivot point one-week R3.
On the downside, gold sellers target $1795 as a strong cushion, the confluence of the Fibonacci 23.6% one-day, SMA200 four-hour and pivot point one-week R1.
The convergence of the Fibonacci 61.8% one-month and Fibonacci 38.2% one-day forms fierce support at $1792.
Acceptance below the latter could call for a test of $1790, where the Fibonacci 23.6% one-week and SMA10 one-day coincide.
The next best safety net for gold is seen at $1786, the Fibonacci 38.2% one-week.
· “What we are looking for here is not a policy change. The Fed will set the stage for a tapering announcement perhaps next month,” said DailyFX currency strategist Ilya Spivak.
“Gold stands to be the most vulnerable, the dollar stands to benefit the most ... critical support for gold is around $1,750. If that gets taken out, I can see it testing $1,700.”
· Gold rises ahead of Federal Reserve’s meeting on tapering
Spot gold rises as investors focus on Fed chief Jerome Powell’s speech for guidance on stimulus tapering.
“Safe-haven buying has come from rising geopolitical tensions in Afghanistan. There are some concerns about further escalation there,” said ANZ analyst Daniel Hynes.
Investors now await Powell’s remarks at the Jackson Hole, Wyoming, symposium at 2pm GMT for any hints about when the Fed will begin tapering its asset purchasing programme.
· Safe-haven demand buoys gold; investors await Fed chief's speech
Gold prices rose on Friday as an increasingly deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan spurred safe-haven demand, though investors were largely focused on Fed chief Jerome Powell’s speech for guidance on stimulus tapering plans.
Gold Spot was up about 1% for the week
· Gold gains in Thai, HK markets as demand up amid US stock market decline
· Volatility will continue until markets hear from Fed Chair Powell
Veritas Financial Group’s Greg Branch joins Closing Bell to discuss today’s market close and what he expects to hear from Federal Reserve Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole summit tomorrow.
· Runaway U.S. home price rises to slow, but affordability to worsen
· U.S. braces for more ISIS attacks after 85 killed in Kabul airport carnage
· French consumer confidence eases in August
· China's industrial profits in July grow 16.4% y/y
Profits at China’s industrial firms grew at a slower rate of 16.4% on year to 703.67 billion yuan ($108.6 billion) in July, the statistics bureau said on Friday, as elevated commodity prices and supply chain constraints from extreme weather weighed on the sector.
· Japan's July factory output to fall as Delta variant spreads in Asia: Reuters poll
Factory output was projected to have fallen 2.5% from the previous month in the poll of 18 economists, dropping into contraction after a sharp 6.5% jump in June, the highest growth since July 2020.
· Hong Kong home prices rise for 7th month, near record high
Hong Kong private home prices rose 0.46% in July, official data showed on Friday, just short of a record high, supported by strong pent-up demand and hopes that mainland Chinese buyers will soon return.
· India won’t surprise markets with sudden rate hike, central bank governor says
India’s central bank is in no hurry to reverse course on record low interest rates despite mounting worries around inflation, Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das told CNBC.
· Australia retail sales plunge in July, economy set to shrink
Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics out on Friday showed retail sales fell 2.7% in July to A$29.8 billion ($21.55 billion) from June, when travel restrictions had already caused a 1.8% drop. It was the largest decline this year and even worse than market forecasts of a 2.3% fall.
COVID-19 UPDATES:
· U.S. coronavirus hospitalizations hit eight-month high over 100,000
· New Zealand keeps curbs until next week to beat Delta; Auckland shut for longer
· Contaminant in Moderna vaccines suspected to be metallic particles -NHK
Reference: CNBC, Reuters, FXStreet, DailyFX, NationThailand
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