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US Retail Sales Preview: Forecasts from five major banks, damage from lack of available new cars

The US Census Bureau will publish the Retail Sales report for August on Thursday, September 16, at 12:30 GMT and as we get closer to the release time, here are the forecasts of economists and researchers of five major banks, regarding the upcoming US Retail Sales data. Following July's contraction of 1.1%, investors expect sales to decline by 0.8% in August. Excluding automobiles, Retail Sales are forecast to fall by only 0.1%.

ING

“We predict total sales fell 1.5% MoM given the volume of auto sales plunged 11.5%. Even with price increases, this still means that the dollar value of auto sales will be a huge drag given that in July, autos accounted for 19% of all retail sales. Based on the high-frequency numbers we are seeing, we expect a stabilisation in September before a rebound in retail sales gets underway in 4Q, driven by strong employment and wage gains.”

TDS

“Retail sales probably improved in August relative to the -1.1% MoM total/-1.0% MoM control readings in July, but the net result will likely still be little change in spending since the stimulus-powered 11% surge in March. The pattern is consistent with the boost to goods spending from fiscal stimulus having peaked. (The retail sales report mainly covers goods, not services.)”

RBC Economics

“We look to see US retail sales to record another decline of 1% in August on account of lower auto sales.”

NBF

“Retail sales may have contracted in August as the reopening of some high contact segments (e.g. eating/drinking establishments, clothing) was likely offset by poor auto sales. We expect headline outlays to have decreased 0.8% MoM. Ex-auto sales might have fared better, helped by rising pump prices which may have boosted gasoline station receipts.”

CIBC

“A large drop in auto sales as suggested by the unit sales data implies a further retreat in total US retail sales in August, by 0.6%. The control group of sales (ex. autos, restaurants, gasoline, and building materials) likely eked out a 0.1% advance, which would still be a negative in volume terms. We are more optimistic than the consensus which could see the USD rise alongside bond yields.”

Reference: FXStreet