Spot gold stepped back on Monday from near a three-month top hit the session before, after a U.S. jobs report cast some doubt over prospects for a quicker pace of rate hikes this year and pushed up the dollar.
U.S. employment gains slowed more than expected in January as the boost to hiring from unseasonably mild weather faded, but rising wages and an unemployment rate at an eight-year low suggested the labour market recovery remains firm.
But an increasingly doveish trend by global central banks as they battle prolonged economic weakness could make a solid case to get back into the safe-haven metal.
"We prefer gold," said analyst Lachlan Shaw of UBS.
"UBS cut expectations for U.S. GDP growth this year, and in that kind of world, people have cut expectations for Fed interest rate normalization. If the Fed holds off raising rates, then the USD will be weaker and gold should outperform."
Meanwhile, hedge funds and money managers boosted their bullish bet in COMEX gold to a three-month high in the week to Feb. 2, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed on Friday.
A global slowdown has increased speculation that U.S. growth will cool enough to force Federal Reserve policy makers to wait longer before raising interest rates again. The prospect of delays sent the dollar lower and gave metals a boost as alternative investments. Speculators increased their bets on price gains for gold and silver and got less bearish on copper.
Gold and copper prices have climbed for three straight weeks, the longest rally since at least mid-April. The 80-member Bloomberg World Mining Index jumped 8 percent last week, adding more than $38 billion to the combined value of the companies. The metals are rebounding from a slump in 2015, when excess supplies and little investor interest spurred annual declines.
"The recent CFTC data suggests speculators continue to trim short positions and bulls are also returning to the market," ANZ said in a note. "The uncertainty around the Fed tightening cycle is likely to support gold prices in coming weeks."
Since the start of the year, investors added $2.4 billion to exchange-traded funds linked to precious metals, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That follows a withdrawal of $2.7 billion in 2015, when bullion posted a third straight annual loss. The metal is “in the process of bottoming out,” analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch wrote in a Feb. 5 report.
Research Team at TDS, suggests that Janet Yellen will make her semi-annual testimony on Capital Hill on 10th Feb.
“TD expects Yellen’s remarks to be mostly balanced, reinforcing the Fed’s “wait and see” mode. At the same time she will continue to reiterate the Fed’s optimistic outlook for growth and inflation, though she will likely highlight the increased uncertainty surrounding that outlook. TD expects the tone of Yellen’s remarks to be mostly dovish, reinforcing the lowered odds of a March hike.”
Reference: Reuters, FXStreet, Bloomberg