Wells Fargo has emphasized the divergence between the production and services sides of the economy over the past six months and we can see that divergence in today’s numbers. Although manufacturing employment surprised to the upside, mining employment fell for the 11th straight month. Employment in the services sector, on the other hand, rose by 118,000 jobs, yet there has been a clear slowdown relative to the second half of 2015. Moreover, growth in the residential and nonresidential construction sectors remains evident in the 18,000 gain in construction jobs last month. These gains represent solid trends supporting continued economic growth and certainly do not signal recession.
Another late cycle indication from the labor market is the rising cost of labor. As expected, the unemployment rate fell to 4.9 percent. The 0.5 percent increase in average hourly earnings. Nonfarm employment rose 151,000 in January
Going forward, we anticipate this measure of labor costs will pick up, thereby signaling rising labor cost pressures, especially since productivity gains remain very modest at best. For the economy, this will put further pressure on corporate profit growth and further limit companies’ willingness to invest and hire.
Wells Fargo did not expect an FOMC move in March and possibly not in June as well. We retain that view. Moreover, the more modest job gains continue to signal an economy that is drifting on thin ice as we indicated with our GDP report last week.
China's foreign reserves fell for a third straight month in January, as the central bank dumped dollars to defend the yuan and prevent an increase in capital outflows.
China's foreign reserves fell $99.5 billion to $3.23 trillion in January, the lowest level since May 2012, central bank data showed, but higher than the median forecast of $3.20 trillion from economists surveyed in a Reuters poll.
The size of the drop was second only to the $107.9 billion fall in December, the largest monthly decline on record. The central bank has intensified efforts to prop up the yuan after it staged a surprise devaluation in early August.
China's reserves remain the world's largest despite losing around $420 billion in the last six months. In 2015, they fell by $513 billion, the largest annual drop in history.
Crude oil futures rose on Monday in thin trade as many Asian markets were on holiday for Lunar New Year, with few trading cues expected until Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen gives testimony to lawmakers later in the week.
Global benchmark Brent futures LCOc1 were up 17 cents at $34.23 at 0751 GMT. They fell 40 cents to $34.06 a barrel on Friday.
U.S. crude futures CLc1 rose 18 cents to $31.07, after falling 83 cents to $30.89 on Friday.
Both contracts had dropped slightly earlier on Monday in see-saw trade on low volumes.
Saudi Arabia's oil minister Ali al-Naimi talked about cooperation between members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other oil producers to stabilise the global oil market with his Venezuelan counterpart, but there was no agreement to hold an early meeting of suppliers.
Venezuela's Oil Minister Eulogio Del Pino, who is on a tour of oil producers to lobby for action to prop up prices, said his meeting with Naimi was "productive".
The prospect of a supply restraint helped oil prices rise from 12-year lows last month, even though there was widespread scepticism that a deal would happen.
"The strength we saw in the middle of last week has not been completely overturned but the direction has reversed," said Ric Spooner, chief market analyst at CMC Markets in Sydney.
The market is looking forward to Yellen's testimony on Wednesday along with U.S. crude inventory levels the same day, Spooner said.
Reference: CNBC, Wells Fargo, Reuters