• MTS Economic News_20160211

    11 Feb 2016 | Economic News

SWEDEN'S RIKSBANK CUTS KEY RATE TO -0.50 % bigger cut than expected

CitiAM said, sweden's key interest rate has been negative since february 2015, with four rate cuts in the past year alone.

Yesterday, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen suggested that the central bank might delay, but not abandon, planned interest-rate increases in response to recent turmoil in financial markets.

In presenting the Fed’s semi-annual economic report to Congress, Yellen said the turbulence had "significantly" tightened financial conditions by pushing down stock prices, pushing up the dollar and raising some borrowing costs.

YELLEN ON GDP GROWTH "GDP growth really clearly slowed a lot in the fourth quarter. My expectation is that it will pick up this quarter. But on the other hand financial conditions have tightened considerably and the could have implications to the outlook."

YELLEN ON WAGE GROWTH "I'd say the signs of wage growth increasing, they're tentative at this point. There are some hopeful signs but I think if the labor market continues to progress we are very hopeful we will see faster progress on wages."

YELLEN ON FALL IN OIL PRICES "We are taking account as you said of the fact that the energy sector is very hard hit. We are losing jobs there, but with respect to employment, although there really are very severe losses, it is a pretty small sector of the workforce overall.

"We are seeing massive cutbacks in drilling activity and that's rippling through to manufacturing generally, where output is depressed. So it is having negative consequences.

"On the other hand, if you look at the difference in oil prices now relative to 2014, for the average American household we are looking at a savings of a $1000 a year, and that's boosting consumer spending."

"These developments, if they prove persistent, could weigh on the outlook for economic activity and the labor market," she told the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday.

"I think that the Fed was trying to do the right thing, but it turned out to be the wrong time," Grant said. "I think the Fed missed its market."

Global growth concerns have impacted the markets, but Grant says the U.S. is already in a recession.

"I think we are in one," he noted. "I think there's a defensible case to be made that a recession began late last year."

Oil prices slid on Thursday as record U.S. crude inventories at the Cushing delivery point and worries about a global economic slowdown weighed on markets, and Goldman Sachs said prices would remain low and volatile until the second half of the year.

Inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery point for U.S. crude futures rose to an all-time high just shy of 65 million barrels, data from the government's Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed on Wednesday.

International benchmark Brent crude futures LCOc1 were trading at $30.67 per barrel at 0601 GMT, down 17 cents.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were at $27.01 per barrel, down 44 cents and within a dollar of the $26.19 a barrel intra-day low hit in January that was the lowest since 2003.

"Brent is holding much stronger than WTI which reflects the current oversupply in the U.S.," said Singapore-based brokerage Phillip Futures.

The overhang in oil supplies, together with an economic slowdown in China, means that prices will remain low until the second half of the year, Goldman Sachs said in a note to clients.

"The risks of China growth concerns and oil price downside ... materialised faster than we anticipated," the bank said.

"We expect oil prices will continue to fluctuate between $20 per barrel (operational stress level) and $40 per barrel (financial stress level) with significant volatility and no price trend until 2H2016," it added.

Estimates compiled by Bloomberg show analysts see a barrel of Brent costing about $49 in the first quarter of 2017. But then again, this time last year they thought oil would reach $55 a barrel in the first quarter of 2016.

“We are looking in general at what’s on the market, but are obviously cautious in not buying something that’s too expensive or which has a too short production life,” Andersen said. “In the long term, we think that projects with break-even of $45 to $55 would make excellent transactions.”


Reference: CNBC, Bloomberg, Reuters, CityAM

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