• MTS Economic News_20160215

    15 Feb 2016 | Economic News
The People’s Bank of China has stepped up efforts to restore stability to the nation’s currency and economy, with Governor Zhou Xiaochuan breaking his long silence to say there’s no basis for continued yuan depreciation. The nation’s balance of payments is good, capital outflows are normal and the exchange rate is basically stable against a basket of currencies, Zhou said in an interview published Saturday in Caixin magazine.


China's exports fell 11.2 percent on-year in January, while imports declined 18.8 percent, clocking far bigger slides than expected by analysts.

The nation’s exports declined for a 7th month, import declined for 15th month

Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a 1.9 percent drop in January exports, and a 0.8 percent drop in imports, after China's exports fell 1.4 percent in December from a year earlier and imports slid 7.6 percent.

China's trade surplus came in at $63.3 billion in January, against analysts' expectations of a$58.85 billion surplus.

Separately, yuan-denominated data showed exports fell 6.6 percent in January and imports dropped 14.4 percent from a year ago. That left the country with a trade surplus of 406.2 billion yuan for the month.

Nomura analysts said in a note that the below-forecast decline in export growth suggested a deterioration in external demand, although growth in retail sales over week-long Lunar New Year holidays still pointed to stable growth in consumption.

"Therefore, we believe the slump in trade growth mainly reflects weakening investment demand, possibly from weaker property investment and measures to reduce overcapacity," Nomura said.



Japan’s economy contracted in the final three months of 2015 as the nation struggles to break free of a cycle of expansion and contraction despite more than three years of the Abenomics program.

Gross domestic product shrank an annualized 1.4 percent in the three months ended Dec. 31, following a revised 1.3 percent gain in the third quarter, the Cabinet Office said on Monday. The median estimate of 33 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 0.8 percent decline.

Weakness in private consumption was the biggest contributor to the contraction, undermining Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s policies to spur inflation and growth in the world’s third-largest economy. The yen appreciated 6 percent against the dollar this month, undermining exporters, even after increased monetary stimulus and attempts by government officials to quell its volatile rise.

“Consumption was weak, even after taking out seasonal factors, as households tightened their purse strings,” said Yuichi Kodama, chief economist at Meiji Yasuda Life Insurance Co. in Tokyo. “The downside risks to Japan’s economy are likely to increase as the yen’s gains may damp capital spending and exports, and private consumption also is looking weak. There’s no clear driver to support Japan’s economy.”



Retail sales rose a better-than-expected 0.2 percent in January, while the originally reported 0.1 percent drop in December was upgraded to a 0.2 percent increase. Control sales were up 0.6 percent. Overall a good report.

In addition, gasoline station sales plunged 3.1 percent in the month, which makes January’s 0.2 percent increase in overall sales important given the headwind faced by retail sales due to lower gasoline prices.

The strongest sectors in January were a 1.6 percent growth rate from nonstore retailers and a 1.2 percent increase from miscellaneous retailers. Meanwhile, building material sales posted their fourth consecutive monthon-month increase by improving 0.6 percent in January after a strong 1.4 percent increase in December.

Since these results are given in nominal terms the expectation is that real retail sales were even stronger because we had further declines in gasoline prices during the month of January. Thus, in real terms we should expect U.S. consumer demand to have been very strong to start the year. Perhaps the only thing that could dampen consumer demand is if consumers begin to keep money for a rainy day, i.e., savings continue to increase. In any case, we believe that, for now, current recession fears in the U.S. have been exaggerated.

Brent and U.S. crude futures edged lower on Monday as the dollar regained ground and as weak Chinese trade data stoked concerns about demand in the world's biggest energy consumer.

Brent crude for April delivery LCOc1 was down 1.244 percent at $32.95 a barrel by 15.50 ICT.


At least 67 U.S. oil and natural gas companies filed for bankruptcy in 2015 from 14 companies in 2014, according to consulting firm Gavin/Solmonese.



In 2014 average Crude oil price is 96.2$/bbl, 2015 is 50.8$/bbl and in January 2016 is 29.8$/bbl according to Pink Sheet, World Bank

With oil prices crashing further in recent weeks, five more energy gas producers succumbed to bankruptcy in the first five weeks of this year, according to Houston law firm Haynes and Boone.


Reference: Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, World Bank



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