• MTS Economic News_20160229

    29 Feb 2016 | Economic News

Personal income and personal consumption expenditures both increased a better-than-expected0.5 percent in January.

Wells Fargo’s economist said, Real spending was strong in every consumer sector. Durable goods increased 1.1 percent during the month compared to a drop of 0.4 percent in December while non-durables purchases also increased 0.4 percent. Meanwhile, consumption of services, the largest component of personal consumption expenditures grew, 0.3 percent, the same increase achieved in December.

Perhaps the only concern in terms of the U.S. consumer has to do with consumer confidence, which took a hit in February and could affect the performance of personal consumption expenditures in the near future. The bank said.

The People's Bank of China injected CNY230 billion via seven-day reverse repos at open-market operations Monday, traders said. A total of CNY1.16 trillion in outstanding reverse repos matures this week including CNY80 billion Monday.

A vice governor of China’s central bank said the authorities have full confidence in yuan’s fundamentals and the nation’s capital outflows will slow down, reiterating recent rhetoric to soothe market concerns about the domestic currency.

Yi Gang said he believes the exchange rate will eventually reflect its fundamentals more, rather than market speculation.

“In this regard, we have patience,” Mr. Yi said in an interview with the official Xinhua News Agency, according to transcripts posted on the central bank’s website late Sunday

China said on Monday it expects to lay off 1.8 million workers in the coal and steel sectors as part of efforts to reduce industrial overcapacity, but no timeframe was given.

Yin Weimin, the minister for human resources and social security, told a news conference that 1.3 million workers in the coal sector could lose jobs, plus 500,000 from the steel sector. It was the first time a senior government official has given a number for job losses as China deals with industrial overcapacity amid slowing growth.

"This involves the resettlement of a total of 1.8 million workers. This task will be very difficult, but we are still very confident," Yin said.

The central government will allocate 100 billion yuan ($15.27 billion) over two years to relocate workers laid off as a result of China's efforts to curb overcapacity, officials said last week.

European Central Bank Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said Sunday that the ECB has to react if the oil price plunge shows signs of producing longer term effects on prices.

Villeroy de Galhau, who heads the Bank of France, told Germany's Frankfurter Allgemeine newspaper that "temporary falling oil prices alone are not a sufficient reason" to act. "But if the low energy prices have sustainable long-term effects, we have to act. That seems to be the case, but we will see in March."

Asked whether the ECB will increase its QE bond purchases above the E60 billion it is currently buying each month, Villeroy de Galhau said "It is one possibility, among others; we are ready to act, but we will have to see the economic data first."

Gulf Cooperation Council countries may struggle to refinance $94 billion of debt in the next two years as the region faces slowing growth, rising rates and rating downgrades, according to HSBC Holdings Plc.

Oil-rich GCC states have to refinance $52 billion of bonds and $42 billion of syndicated loans, mostly in the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, HSBC said in an e-mailed report. The countries also face a fiscal and current account deficit of $395 billion over the period, it said.

Expectations that these funding gaps "will be part financed through the sale of sovereign U.S. dollar debt will complicate efforts to refinance existing paper that matures over 2016 and 2017," Simon Williams, HSBC’s chief economist for the Middle East, said in the report. "With the Gulf acting as a single credit market, the refinancing challenge will likely be much more broadly felt" and "compounded by tightening regional liquidity, rising rates and recent downgrades," he said.

GCC states, which collectively produce about a quarter of the world’s oil, are taking unprecedented measures to shore up their public finances as crude prices struggle to rebound from the lowest levels in 12 years. The countries, which include Saudi Arabia and Oman, have also been hit by a series of rating cuts, while billions of dollars have been drained from the region’s banking system.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were down 0.3 percent at $32.68 a barrel after gaining over 15 percent the previous week.

Brent futures LCOc1 had climbed 0.51 percent, from their previous close to $35.28 a barrel

"The U.S. crude market seems to have passed the worst point and crude runs should start creeping higher, taking pressure off inventory levels," said Richard Gorry, director of JBC Energy Asia.

"The latest EIA data on U.S. production is also supportive as it indicates that the low prices are finally having an impact," he said, referring to numbers from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

U.S. shale producers cut oil rigs for a 10th week in a row to the lowest levels since December 2009, data showed on Friday, which analysts expect will lead to a production fall of 600,000 barrels per day this year.

Morgan Stanley said a potential Russian/Saudi agreement to freeze output at January levels could also drive prices.

"Russia said production freeze agreement discussions should end on March 1... Any news of progression could drive headlines and prices," the bank said, but added that "we still question the efficacy of a freeze."

At the same time, financial speculators have sharply raised their bullish bets on oil after talk of a global production freeze and signs of falling U.S. shale crude output and growing gasoline demand.

Money managers raised their combined net long position in crude futures and options in New York and London by nearly 16 percent for the week ended Feb. 23, data by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed.

ING bank said that technical market indicators "could be the early warning sign of a coming trend change."

Despite this, JBC's Gorry said there was also "still a lot of downside risk" due to the huge overhang in production and stored supplies, which in the United States are at historic highs.


Reference: Wells Fargo’s Economic Indicators Reports, Bloomberg, MNI News, Reuters, The Wall Street Journal

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