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The Wall Street Journal’s surveys a group of more than 60 economists on March. Major of economists (85%) expect fed will increase interest rate within June. While minor of economists (3%) expect fed will hike the rate today.
The probability the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year jumped to 78 percent, the highest level in two months, as employment and inflation expectations pick up. Policy makers will keep their benchmark unchanged at a two-day meeting that starts Tuesday, according to all but four of 97 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
No change to the cost of borrowing is the expected outcome of the Federal Reserve’s two day policy meeting that started on Tuesday.
But economists do anticipate Fed Chair Janet Yellen will signal that an interest rate increase is not too far off, as long as the US job market and inflation continue to “The most prominent risk in January – the tightening in financial conditions at the start of the year – has receded,” wrote Goldman Sachs economists Zach Pandl and Jan Hatzius.
“As a result, Chair Yellen will likely indicate that the committee remains on track to raise rates again next quarter.”
"Markets are never wrong but they continue to change their minds about what the Fed will do this year," DBS Bank said in a note Wednesday, ahead of the Federal Reserve decision due later in the global day. "In January, Fed fund futures reckoned the Fed would hike 2.5 times by December. Six weeks later, all of those hikes were gone. Six weeks after that – today, that is – 1.5 hikes are back on the screen."
There's another reason there isn't much agreement on what's ahead: Many of the forecasts in the survey diverged too widely to meet easily at a median.
This chart of the results of the CNBC survey highlights the divergence of opinion.
China's Premier Li Keqiang defended the country's economic policies on Wednesday, repeating well-worn lines that there was more opportunity than risk and vowing there would be no hard landing for the world's second-largest economy if the government presses ahead with reforms.
China will cut red tape for businesses, work to reduce corporate debt, improve financial regulation and ensure no mass layoffs will result as it restructures heavy industries such as coal and steel, Li said at a news conference on Wednesday at the end of the annual meeting of parliament.
Central government funding can be increased to help laid-off workers if necessary, Li said, in addition to a 100 billion yuan ($15.3 billion) fund announced in February aimed at relocating workers who lose their jobs as China attempts to curb overcapacity.
He did not provide specific numbers on how many workers would be laid off nor give details on how workers would be relocated or retrained.
Sources have told Reuters that China is expecting to lay off 5 million to 6 million state workers over the next two to three years as part of efforts to curb industrial overcapacity and pollution.
China’s central bank has drafted rules for a tax on foreign-exchange transactions that would help curb currency speculation, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
The initial rate of the so-called Tobin tax may be kept at zero to allow authorities time to refine the rules, said the people, who asked not to be identified as the discussions are private. The tax is not designed to disrupt hedging and other foreign-exchange transactions undertaken by companies, they said.
Imposing a levy on foreign-exchange trading would be the most extreme step yet by policy makers to prevent speculative bets against the Chinese currency, after state-run banks repeatedly intervened to support the yuan and the government intensified a crackdown on capital outflows. A Tobin tax would complicate plans by China to create an international reserve currency and could undermine the leadership’s pledge to increase the role of market forces in the world’s second-largest economy.
U.S. crude futures CLc1 were trading at $36.64 per barrel at 0756 GMT, up 30 cents from their last settlement.
Brent LCOc1 was up 11 cents at $38.85 a barrel.
Sources at the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said a meeting of producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia to discuss an output freeze will take place on April 17, even without Iran.
Reference: The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Euronews, CNBC, Reuters
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