The dollar firmed a little but languished close to 17-month lows against the yen on Friday, with the Japanese currency poised for weekly gains against its major counterparts despite verbal warnings from Japanese officials.
Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said early on Friday that rapid foreign exchange moves were "undesirable," that the current yen moves were "one-sided," and that Japan would takes steps as needed.
Aso's words helped the dollar gain about 0.4 percent to 108.67 yen after dropping as low as 107.67 on Thursday, its weakest since October 2014. But it was still on track to lose 2.7 percent for the week.
"Not only is (the yen's rise) bad for Japanese growth but it can also be seen as a negative sign for the global economy to the extent that it may signal unwinding carry trades and hence less risk taking in capital flows," Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy at AMP Capital in Sydney, wrote in a note.
China Foreign Exchange Reserves Rise for First Time in Five Months
The world’s largest currency hoard rose by $10.3 billion to $3.21 trillion last month, the People’s Bank of China said in a statement Thursday. That compared with the $6.3 billion decrease expected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg, who had a median projection reserves would fall to $3.196 trillion.
The unexpected rise was due to "the weakening dollar, the capital outflow curbs, and the recovery of the Chinese economy since March due to massive fiscal and monetary easing," said Shen Jianguang, chief economist at Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd. in Hong Kong. "The PBOC will maintain capital outflow restrictions."
Oil prices edged up early on Friday
Oil prices edged up early on Friday, lifted by firm economic indicators from the United States and Germany which could support fuel demand, but analysts warned that crude markets were threatened by another downturn because of ongoing oversupply.
Front month U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were trading at $37.64 per barrel at 0040 GMT, up 38 cents from their last close. International Brent futures were up 24 cents at $39.67 a barrel.
U.S. production may drop by 725,000 barrels a day in 2016, implying a monthly reduction of 85,000 barrels a day for the rest of the year, according to Goldman. Daily output was at 9 million barrels as of early April, data from the Energy Information Administration show.
“Our view on a path to a 2017 oil price recovery is contingent on a decline in U.S. oil production needed to rebalance the global market,” the Goldman analysts wrote in the report.
While prices of crude at that level are above cash costs of production, they will deter a rebound in shale output from occurring too early, the bank’s New York-based analysts including Brian Singer said in a report dated April 6. Oil at $30 to $35 a barrel should keep the behavior of U.S. companies unchanged and help lift West Texas Intermediate to $55 to $60 a barrel in 2017, according to Goldman.
Reference: Reuters, CNBC, Bloomberg