• MTS Economic News_20160411

    11 Apr 2016 | Economic News

With everyone's focus sharply attuned on anything to do with the Fed's rate hike policy, many will probably wonder why yesterday the Fed announced that this coming Monday, April 11, the Fed will hold a closed meeting "under expedited procedures" during which the Board of Governors will review and determine advance and discount rates charged by the Fed banks. As a reminder, the last time the Fed held such a meeting was on November 21, less than a month before it launched its first rate hike in years.

The dollar fell to fresh 17-month lows against the yen on Monday, prompting Japanese government officials to reiterate warnings that they can take measures to weaken the currency.

USD/JPY hit lows of 107.65, the weakest since October 2014 and was last at 107.83.

The dollar fell 3.2% against the yen last week and is down around 10% for the year to date.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga told a news conference the government was closely monitoring the foreign exchange market with a sense of urgency, noting the yen moves were one-sided and speculative.

China will remain the main driver of growth in Asia this year despite its prolonged slowdown, helped by sustained expansions in other developing countries in the region, the World Bank said Monday.

The U.S.-led development bank forecasts that developing East Asia will grow at a still robust pace of 6.3 percent this year, down from 6.5 percent in 2015. It said the Philippines and Vietnam will lead growth, with economies expanding by more than 6 percent.

Indonesia, the biggest economy in Southeast Asia, is forecast to grow by 5.1 percent in 2016 and 5.3 percent in 2017.

China, the world’s second-biggest economy, is shifting from export and investment-led growth to a greater reliance on consumer spending. The World Bank‘s latest estimate puts growth at 6.7 percent this year and 6.5 percent in 2017, down from 6.9 percent in 2015.

The Washington-based lender now expects the developing East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region, which includes China, to grow 6.3 percent in 2016 and 6.2 percent in 2017, slowing from 6.5 percent growth in 2015.

Its previous forecast in October was 6.4 percent growth in 2016 and 6.3 percent in 2017.

U.S. crude eased to $39.50 by 0600 GMT, off the day's high of $40.47 and down 22 cents from the prior session. Prices had rallied more than 6pc on Friday after data showed U.S. energy firms had cut oil rigs for a third straight week to the lowest since November 2009.

Brent was down 26 cents at $41.68 a barrel, also after sharp gains late last week that were fuelled by production outages in the North Sea and West Africa and hopes a planned meeting in Doha on April 17 of producers will lead to an output freeze. Global overproduction is currently estimated at about 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in excess of demand.

But Goldman Sachs cautioned that the results of the April 17 meeting may end up being bearish for the market.

"A production freeze at recent production levels would not accelerate the rebalancing of the oil market as OPEC (ex. Iran) and Russia production levels have this year remained close to our 2016 average annual forecast of 40.5 million bpd," it said.

"We see greater odds that the Doha meeting delivers a bearish catalyst for oil prices... (and) we continue to believe that the balancing of the oil market requires sustained low prices with our 2Q16 forecast of $35 per barrel," it added.

Barclays also said that the "current expectation is for their actions to have limited impact."

Additionally, Morgan Stanley warned that current oil prices reflected temporary outages and that this "does not necessarily imply upside for flat price or evidence of a faster recovery in the global imbalance".

However, the longer-term outlook for oil seemed less bearish, with analysts forecasting a pick up in demand.


Reference: AP, Business Insider, Zerohedge, Investing, Independent


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