April 18 Gold rose on Monday as oil producers' failure to agree on an output freeze sent crude prices and equities tumbling, stoking safe haven demand for bullion.
Spot gold rose 0.3 percent to $1,237.60 an ounce by 0036 GMT. U.S. gold futures climbed 0.4 percent to $1,239.70.
Hedge funds and money managers raised their bullish bets on gold and silver in the week to April 12, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed on Friday.
SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings rose 0.70 percent to 812.46 tonnes on Friday.
April 13 The price of gold fell from the previous day's three-week peak on Wednesday as the dollar surged to a two-week high against the euro, and major stock markets rose after surprisingly upbeat trade data allayed concerns over China's economy.
"Stronger equities and a relatively stronger dollar have put some pressure on gold," MKS' head of trading Afshin Nabavi said.
"But overall, we couldn't break $1,265 on the upside yesterday, and gold looks like a good buy around $1,240, so I would say that that is the trading range. Physical (demand) continues to be very, very slow."
April 14 Gold extended losses into a third straight session on Thursday as the dollar strengthened and stock markets rose on encouraging economic data from China.
Spot gold had dropped 0.7 percent to $1,233.71 an ounce by 0045 GMT, after falling 1 percent on Wednesday. The metal hit a three-week high of $1,262.60 earlier this week as stocks and the dollar tumbled.
A drop in oil prices also hurt gold. Oil futures fell from fresh four-month highs in choppy trading on Wednesday as comments from Russia's energy minister added to doubts a producer meeting set for Sunday in Doha to discuss freezing output would yield a positive outcome.
Hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials added to the uncertainty over U.S. monetary policy.
Gold has rallied 16 percent this year on waning expectations of a U.S. interest rate hike. But Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker, San Francisco Fed President John Williams and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker all suggested this week that several hikes were possible this year, cutting into gold's recent gains.
Fed Chair Janet Yellen said she favours a cautious approach to monetary policy because the U.S. central bank must try to avoid making "big mistakes," according to an interview published on Wednesday.
The Fed is unlikely to raise U.S. interest rates when it meets later this month but seems to be on track for at least two increases over the rest of the year, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said on Friday.
April 15 Gold steadied on Friday after three days of declines, but was heading for its first weekly drop in three as strength in the dollar and global equities curbed appetite for the safe-haven metal.
Bullion climbed to a three-week high on Tuesday but gave up those gains as world stocks rose to their highest levels since late December on Thursday, boosted by robust Chinese economic data and a surge in oil prices earlier this week.
Asian shares and the dollar were subdued on Friday but were still headed for weekly gains.
Spot gold edged up 0.3 percent to $1,230.30 an ounce by 0646 GMT, following a drop of 1.3 percent in the previous session. It is down nearly 1 percent for the week.
"The rally earlier this week was tied to the strength of Japanese yen and risk aversion. But that has retreated now," said a Hong Kong-based gold trader.
"The market is pricing in only one U.S. rate hike this year, so there will be more price adjustments if there are more."
Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Dennis Lockhart on Thursday said he no longer expects to advocate for a U.S. interest rate hike in April, but added there is still time for two or three rate hikes this year.
The Fed will raise interest rates twice this year, most likely in June, but the probability has faded on signs of a weak start to the year, inflation that is still tame and a brittle global backdrop, a Reuters poll showed.
Despite a strong start at the beginning of the week, gold prices have ended the week in negative territory. To add insult to injury, the yellow metal is no longer the best performing precious metal as silver now claims that title.
May Comex silver futures settled the week at 16.313 an ounce up 6% week, its biggest weekly gain since early May 2015. The rally also helped propel silver to be the best performing precious metal with gains of 17.6% on the year, compared to gold’s 16% year-to-date performance. June Comex gold futures settled Friday at $1,234.60 an ounce, down 0.58% on the week.
This week positive sentiment among retail investors dropped as 66% of survey participant are bullish on prices, down from 80% from the previous survey. At the same time only 24% of market professionals are bullish on prices, down from 60% last week.
“After gold’s inability to break above $1,260 motivated investors to look for other under performing assets and they saw better opportunities in silver,” he said.
Turning to gold prices, Ole Hansen said that he expects to see gold push higher, but remain its range with $1,250 expected to be strong resistance next week.
“Gold’s inability to push to March’s high demonstrates that additional time is needed for the market to consolidate after its first quarter performance,” he said.
Phil Streible, senior market strategist at RJOFutures, said that he is more bullish on silver than he is gold. He added that gold’s recent disappointing performance could lead to a test of support around $1,200 an ounce or even $1,190 an ounce.
“I still think silver is going higher and we could see prices push towards $20 he said. “U.S. dollar strength will be key to determine gold’s and silver movement.”
Christopher Vecchio, currency analyst at DailyFX, agreed that U.S. dollar moves will be important for gold and silver prices; however he added in a recent report that silver’s recent strength could highlight renewed weakness for the greenback.
He added that he is still optimistic on gold as the Federal Reserve remains “ambiguous” on potential interest rate hikes.
“Silver will only outperform if gold prices are moving higher,” he said. “But if gold takes a hit, silver will take an even bigger one,” he said.
Reference: Reuters, Kitco
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