Fully 100 percent of the 48 respondents to the survey, including economists, strategists and fund managers, are sure the Fed won't hike at its meeting this week. But 94 percent say the next move will be to hike rates. The next hike, on average, isn't expected until August, two months later than anticipated in the previous survey. And respondents don't see rates taking off after that. They lowered their funds rate forecast for 2016 to just 0.78 percent, compared with the current target of 0.38 percent. The rate is seen remaining low in 2017 at just 1.4 percent, 17 basis points less than forecast in the March survey.
Expectations for when the Fed will allow its balance sheet to decline and reach its terminal fed funds rate were also pushed back. The Fed is not seen reducing the balance sheet until next March, one month later than forecast last month. And the central bank won't finish hiking until the third quarter of 2018, also a quarter later.
The responses suggest that the Fed has been successful at convincing markets it will hike only gradually over the next few years.
Not only the economists expect the Fed won’t hike interest rate in today meeting, but also the investors anticipate the probability of Fed raising the rate is 0% according to CME Group FedWatch.
Reference: CNBC, CME Group FedWatch
Read more: http://www.cnbc.com/