The latest CNBC Fed Survey shows Wall Street anticipating a more dovish Fed in April than it did back in March, with the next rate hike not expected until much later this year.
Fully 100 percent of the 48 respondents to the survey, including economists, strategists and fund managers, are sure the Fed won't hike at its meeting this week. But 94 percent say the next move will be to hike rates. The next hike, on average, isn't expected until August, two months later than anticipated in the previous survey. And respondents don't see rates taking off after that. They lowered their funds rate forecast for 2016 to just 0.78 percent, compared with the current target of 0.38 percent. The rate is seen remaining low in 2017 at just 1.4 percent, 17 basis points less than forecast in the March survey.
Expectations for when the Fed will allow its balance sheet to decline and reach its terminal fed funds rate were also pushed back. The Fed is not seen reducing the balance sheet until next March, one month later than forecast last month. And the central bank won't finish hiking until the third quarter of 2018, also a quarter later.
The responses suggest that the Fed has been successful at convincing markets it will hike only gradually over the next few years.
Not only the economists expect the Fed won’t hike interest rate in today meeting, but also the investors anticipate the probability of Fed raising the rate is 0% according to CME Group FedWatch.
Chinese industrial profits through March rose 11.1%
Chinese industrial profits through March rose 11.1% - the most since July 2014 to 1.34Tln Yuan. NBS says its sales and prices.
IMF welcomes Chinese efforts to tackle high corporate debt, bad loans
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said Tuesday that China's efforts to deal with excessive corporate debt and nonperforming loans are welcoming and encouraging.
"It is welcome that the (Chinese) government is focusing on the problems of excessive corporate debt and the corresponding burden on banks of impaired assets," IMF staff wrote in a technical note.
China has recognized the importance of de-leveraging and slashing overcapacity and overstock, against the background of rising corporate debt and bad loans. To wind down corporate leverage ratio and ease the bad loan risks on banks, China is considering detailed measures, which are likely to include debt-equity swap and bad-loan securitization.
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang has recently stressed on several occasions the importance of introducing debt-equity swaps to gradually bring down the corporate leverage ratio.
he IMF staff said that debt-equity conversions and bad-loan securitization can play a role in addressing problems, such as rising corporate debt.
"The success in addressing this issue is important for China's economic transition and, given its size and growing global integration, the world's economy at large," said the note.
The IMF staff suggested that debt-equity conversions should convert debt only of viable firms instead of allowing debt-laden "zombie" companies to stay afloat.
Prelim GDP U.K. reached expectation.
The U.K. economy is expected to post a sharp slowdown in growth in the first quarter amid concerns that a forthcoming vote on the country's membership of the European Union is scaring investors and industry.
Market analysts believe that preliminary gross domestic product (GDP) estimates released on Wednesday morning will show a slowdown in the first quarter to 0.4 percent, down from 0.6 percent in the previous quarter.
World Bank lifts oil price forecasts but warns of further pain
The World Bank has boosted its forecast for global oil prices by 10pc for 2016 but at the same time warned that commodity prices will remain well below last year’s levels inflicting further pain on resource-rich countries.
In January the World Bank pointed to a price of $37 a barrel for the benchmark oil price but in its latest quarterly report raised the forecast to $41 due to “improving sentiment and a weakening dollar”.
The World Bank still expects all energy prices - including oil, natural gas and coal - to remain heavily depressed compared to last year, but has revised down its January prediction of a 24.7 percent slide to a 19.3 percent fall compared to 2015.
Oil prices jump on weak dollar, strong investor appetite
Crude oil futures rose around half a dollar on Wednesday and remained near 2016 highs on the back of strong investor sentiment and a weak dollar, although analysts warned this month's bull-run could soon run out of steam.
International Brent crude futures were trading at $46.24 per barrel at 0535 GMT, up 50 cents, or 1.1 percent from their last settlement.
Reference: CNBC, CME Group FedWatch, DailyFX, Xinhua, Tel
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