• MTS Economic News_20160527

    27 May 2016 | Economic News


Dollar holds steady, traders await Yellen speech for Fed clues

The dollar stayed in consolidation mode on Friday after its rally to two-month highs ran out of steam with bulls looking for fresh guidance from the head of the U.S. central bank.

The dollar index was last at 95.195, having pulled back from a peak of 95.661 set on Wednesday.

It is still up nearly 2.3 percent this month, among the top performing currencies, after a string of Federal Reserve officials bolstered expectations for a hike in interest rates as early as next month.

"I'm not sure how concerted this whole thing has been. If it's all kind of planned or if it's just individual members speaking," said Jesper Bargmann, head of trading for Nordea Bank in Singapore, referring to the Fed officials' relatively hawkish comments.

Traders are now keen to hear from Fed Chair Janet Yellen, who is due to speak at an event hosted by the Harvard University Radcliffe Institute for Advanced Study at 1715 GMT.

"This is her chance if she wants to give a hint," Bargmann said.


Atlanta Fed raises U.S. second-quarter GDP view to 2.9 percent

The U.S. economy is on track to grow by a 2.9 percent annualized rate in the second quarter following the latest data on durable goods orders and advance goods trade, the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow forecast model showed on Thursday.

The latest GDP estimate saw faster growth than the 2.5 percent pace reported on May 17, the regional Fed said on its website.

It was the Atlanta Fed's strongest reading yet on second-quarter economic activity, suggesting a rebound from a weak first quarter. Its initial second-quarter GDP growth estimate back on April 29 was 1.8 percent.

The forecast for second-quarter gross private domestic investment swung to growth of 0.4 percent from an estimated 0.3 percent fall following Thursday's durable goods report for April, the Atlanta Fed said.


China’s government borrowing to rise as debt levels still low: finance ministry

China will increase government borrowing as its debt levels are still low compared with those of other major economies, says the Ministry of Finance.

The government debt ratio – including direct and contingent debt – was just 41.5 per cent of gross domestic product at the end of last year, the finance ministry said on its website on Thursday.

“There’s still room for the Chinese government to increase borrowing,” the ministry said in its statement on Thursday.

“To fulfil the task of reducing leverage, the government can increase leverage ratio to support gradual leverage-ratio reduction in the corporate sector ... China’s local government debt risks are generally under control.”

The ministry said local governments’ debts “form a great number of high-quality assets correspondingly” and that China’s government debt “is different from those countries facing debt crises”.

This year, it budgeted a fiscal deficit at 3 per cent of GDP – the highest level ever.

And government debt is only part of the picture in China’s develeraging plans.


Oil prices retreat from $50 on oversupply concerns, stronger dollar

Oil futures slipped in Asian trade on Friday after hitting resistance at the $50 a barrel mark as investors worried higher prices could reactivate shuttered crude output, adding to global oversupply.

Brent LCOc1 fell 36 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $49.23 by 0602 GMT on Friday, retreating further from the previous session's $50.51 peak, its highest since early November.

Oil pushed through $50 for the first time in around seven months on Thursday after supply disruptions from Canadian wildfires and attacks in Libya and West Africa helped cut daily output by 4 million barrels, but eased to close down on the day.

"Shale is the new shock absorber to the market," said Tony Nunan, oil risk manager at Tokyo's Mitsubishi Corporation.

"There is a wide range of production costs. Shale's total production costs are around $48-$50 a barrel - there will be producers who make money at $50," Nunan said.


Reference: Reuters, South China Morning Post

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