Gold rebounded to a fresh three-week high on Friday, as investor risk aversion lifted appetite for the metal, putting it on track for a second straight weekly rise.
Often perceived as an insurance against economic and financial concerns, gold has risen more than 2 percent this week after weaker than expected U.S. payrolls data dented expectations of an imminent rise in U.S. interest rates.
Prices are likely to be bolstered in the next two weeks by nervousness over Britain's June 23 referendum on its EU membership, analysts said. "The market is no longer worried that the Fed will raise rates next week and investors are more concerned about the UK referendum, which is likely to help increase demand for gold," Danske Bank senior analyst Jens Pedersen said.
According to the Economist’s Brexit poll tracker, 43% of Britons want to leave the EU with 42% wanting to remain; at the same time, 12% say they don’ know.
If the leave side wins the referendum, analysts note that gold could be the biggest beneficiary in the short term as there would be significant global economic uncertainty.
Commodity analysts at ANZ Bank said that they could see the yellow metal eventually pushing to $1,400an ounce if the Brexit referendum passes.
“If the leave campaign is successful, the expected collapse in the GBP (British pound) and resultant market volatility would likely see investors seek safe-haven assets. This could provide a massive boost to investor demand…,” they said in a report published Friday.
U.K.-based research firm Capital Economics noted that even if the referendum passed, nothing would change overnight. However, analysts added that the initial fear sentiment will benefit gold prices also seeing the potential for prices to hit $1,400 an ounce.
Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said Thursday that he would prefer to play the Brexit vote through the options market, highlighting the $1,275 call or the $1,300 call. He explained that the options market has the most upside potential ahead of the referendum.
According to media reports, physical gold demand has picked up in in Britain as residents prepare for the possibility of a significantly weaker pound sterling if the Brexit vote passes. Gold priced in sterling has slightly outperformed gold this last week.
Gold currency charts on Kitco.com show gold priced in sterling has surged higher in the last 24 hours. On the week, gold in sterling terms has rallied 3.4%, slightly beating August Comex gold futures, which are seeing gains of 2.8% on the week.
Spot XAU/GBP gold prices last traded at £888.90 an ounce, up 1.32% on the day. At the same time August gold futures last traded at $1,278.80, up 0.5% on the day.
“Safe-haven and hedge-related buying ahead of the U.K. referendum on continued EU membership is becoming more noticeable, with a portion of this demand being funneled into physical gold purchases in the EU,” said a research note from HSBC.
Recent comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen that kept interest rate hikes on the table this year wasn’t enough to dent gold’s momentum as prices prepare to end its second week of strong gains.
Gold prices continued to benefit from shifting rate expectations. A trend that started after the massively disappointing U.S. May employment report that showed only 38,000 jobs were created last month.
August Comex gold futures last traded at $1,275.50 an ounce, up 2.4% for the week. However, silver’s gains has been even more impressive as prices have jumped above $17 an ounce. July Comex silver futures last traded at $17.335 an ounce up 5.6% on the week.
Is $1,300 in the cards next week?
“There is a lot of nervousness in the market and it doesn’t matter what the Fed does next week that is going to change that,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. “If gold closes above $1,265 and silver closes above $17.19 then we have a clear run to the highs seen earlier in the year.”
“Gold prices appear poised to test May swing highs after breaking trend line resistance capping gains over the past month. A break above the 1297.14-1303.62 area marked by the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion and the May 2 high exposes the 50% level at 1327.29,” said analysts at DailyFX.
Overshadowing the Fed
While U.S. interest rate expectations have created volatility in futures markets. Expanding global negative interest rates has made gold an attractive investment across the board. According to some analysts, this factor will continue to bode well for gold, driving prices higher.
Hansen explained that the global bond market is the elephant in the room. U.S. bond yields are flattening because of strong demand from European and Japanese investors who are faced with negative yields in their own countries, he said.
However, Jonathan Butler, an analyst at Mitsubishi, said he is also bullish on gold because of negative global interest rates but added there are risks of a knee-jerk reaction after the Federal Reserve meeting.
“As long as accommodative monetary policy remains the stated aim of major central banks, sovereign yields are likely to remain low – although we note that there is possible downside risk to gold in the short term if any of the comments from the Fed next week are interpreted as being somewhat hawkish or implying a July rate hike could still be on the cards,” he said.
In a tweet Thursday, Janus Capital’s Bill Gross said that global bond yields are at their lowest point in 500 years.
Gold, Swiss franc, yen favoured on Brexit uncertainty
"It is the combination of the renewed Brexit concerns and last week's weak payrolls that have reduced Fed (rate hike) expectations," said UniCredit strategist Luca Cazzulani in Milan.
"The chance of seeing a print below zero is clearly material at this point... ahead of the UK referendum it is very unlikely that investors will want to change their positions much."
Twenty-one analysts and traders took part in a survey for market professionals. Thirteen, or 62%, said they were bullish. Only three, or 14%, were bearish, while another five, or 24%, were neutral.
Meanwhile, this week’s Kitco’s online and Twitter surveys received combined 852 votes. A total of 633respondents, or 74%, said they were bullish for the week ahead, while only 138, or 16%, were bearish. The neutral votes totaled 81, or 10%.
In last week’s survey, 57% of market professionals and 51% of retail investors were bullish. They were right. As of noon EDT, August gold was higher by $30.60, or 2.2%, for the week to $1,273.50 an ounce.
Reference: KITCO, Reuters, The News