• MTS Economic News_20170104

    4 Jan 2017 | Economic News

  


* The U.S. dollar rose to its highest in 14 years against the euro and a basket of major currencies on Tuesday after data showed solid growth in U.S. manufacturing.

The dollar index .DXY rose to 103.820, its highest level since December 2002 after data showed U.S. factory activity accelerated to a two-year high last month and construction spending rose to its highest in 10-1/2 years in November.

The euro EUR= fell to a 14-year low against the dollar, dropping to $1.0342 after the data's release.

The dollar gained against the yen JPY= as well, reaching 118.60 yen, its highest since Dec. 15 and just a hair below its highest point since February as a holiday in Japan thinned Asian trading.

* Business activity in the Midwest slowed in December, with the Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) falling to 54.6 from 57.6 in the prior month.

It had been forecast to fall to 56.8.

Big declines in new orders and backlogs led to the drop in the headline index. Production also fell, while employment remained in contraction but was little changed from November.

* U.S. factory activity accelerated to a two-year high in December amid a surge in new orders and rapidly rising raw material prices, indicating that some of the drag on manufacturing from prolonged dollar strength and a slump in oil prices was fading.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its index of national factory activity rose 1.5 percentage points to 54.7 last month, the highest level since December 2014. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion in manufacturing, which accounts for about 12 percent of the U.S. economy.

A gauge of new orders jumped 7.2 percentage points to its highest level since November 2014. Twelve industries, including petroleum, electrical equipment, appliances and components and machinery, reported growth in new orders last month.

* The U.S. economy is on track to grow at a 2.9 percent annualized pace in the fourth quarter following the latest data on inventory, spending, investments and net exports, the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDP Now forecast model showed on Tuesday.

The latest fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) estimate was higher than the 2.5 percent growth rate calculated on Dec. 22, the Atlanta Fed said on its website.

* Oil prices settled little changed on Friday but attained their biggest annual gain in seven years after OPEC and other major producers agreed to cut output to reduce a global supply overhang that has depressed prices for two years.

Brent rose 52 percent this year and WTI climbed around 45 percent. On Friday, Brent crude LCOc1 settled down 3 cents, or 0.05 percent, at $56.82 a barrel, and U.S. crude CLc1 settled down 5 cents, or 0.09 percent, at $53.72.

* Oil prices slid more than 2 percent on the first trading day of 2017, knocked off 18-month highs hit in early trade as the U.S. dollar rallied to its highest level since 2002 and traders took profits.

Brent futures fell $1.35, or 2.4 percent, to settle at $55.47 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude lost $1.39, or 2.6 percent, to settle at $52.33, its lowest close in two weeks.

* Oil prices will gradually rise toward $60 per barrel by the end of 2017, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday, with further upside capped by a strong dollar, a likely recovery in U.S. oil output and possible non-compliance by OPEC with agreed cuts.

Brent crude futures will average $57.43 a barrel in 2017, according to 29 analysts and economists polled by Reuters. The current forecast is marginally higher than the $57.01 forecast in the previous survey.

Average Brent prices are expected to improve with each subsequent quarter, starting with $53.88 in the first, to $56.61 in Q2, $58.79 in Q3 and $59.68 in the fourth quarter. Brent has averaged about $45 per barrel in 2016.

Reference: Reuters, Businessinsider

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